Hey all, it’s Lindy! In this series of articles, I’ll walk you through the essential elements of the main NBA DFS slate every night. Remember, unforeseen events might impact the slate, so consider this information more as guidance than absolute gospel. I’ll spotlight some key decision-making moments for the current slate, aiding you in anticipating changes and fine-tuning your lineups accordingly. Let’s get into today’s NBA DFS lineup advice — I’ve got a pair of tournament plays for this evening’s slate. For additional NBA DFS lineup suggestions, check out our NBA DFS lineup generator or our industry-leading NBA DFS simulation tools.
NBA DFS Lineup Questions: Key Decisions for Today
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: Two Rapid-Fire Tournament Plays
Jalen Johnson (ATL — PF)
DFS Salary: $7,300
Ownership Projection: 9.2%
Atlanta Hawks center Bruno Fernando is mega-nuclear chalk tonight. I will certainly have some, but I want to at least voice my apprehension here and let you know why I will be underweight relative to the field in some capacity.
First, Fernando had a bout with back spasms at the end of January and has not played more than 14 minutes in a game since he returned. That said, he is only in this rotation currently because of injuries to both Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, so he wasn’t playing massive minutes before, but now the industry consensus seems to be that he just walks into 25 minutes? I’m not convinced.
Second, this is a Hornets team that has opted for a lot of small-ball minutes for Grant Williams at the five since his acquisition. Should he be knocking down shots and forcing Fernando to the perimeter, the Hawks may opt to just play Jalen Johnson for minutes at the five, as there’s no true backup at the position on the roster anyway.
Now, with Fernando at just $3,600 on DraftKings and a season-long 1.10 DraftKings points per minute producer, I’m not even saying you need to have Johnson in lineups exclusively without Fernando, especially because they’re heavy favorites to start together. But in the event I’m right and Fernando can’t eclipse the 20-minute mark, Johnson should smash at the five with his 23.7% defensive rebound rate and potential 40-minute upside against the Hornets who are dead-last in defensive rating.
Jordan Clarkson (UTA — SG/SF)
DFS Salary: $5,600
Ownership Projection: 8%
Again, the word isn’t necessarily ‘pivot’ off of Keyonte George here, who is one of the highest-owned plays on the slate due to his new starting spot and agreeable $4,200 price tag. But one of the more likely ways he fails here is with Jordan Clarkson going ballistic off the bench against his former team — potentially knocking George off the closing lineup.
It’s not out of the question, as the Jazz did have pretty firm rotations until parting ways with Simone Fontecchio and Kelly Olynyk at the trade deadline, and now things are a little more unclear. What is very clear, however, is it would take a lot for former starter Kris Dunn to play himself into closing minutes barring a George injury of some sort.
But Clarkson is very live to play himself into closing minutes due to his main job on this team: offensive creation, be that for himself or others. And while the shot’s been downright horrific this season (47.1% eFG, 29.8% 3PT), he’s got a 23.8% assist rate that hasn’t been close to this high since his rookie season. So let’s get weird with a little leverage: more Clarkson and less George for me in the name of leverage.
