Welp, sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes the bear eats you. Still blown away that Cam Whitmore’s ownership skyrocketed north of 25% — never would have had him in nearly half my lineups if that had been the case — but doesn’t change the fact that despite an awesome first rotation, he was a flat-out failure on Tuesday. However, calculated risks are a part of this game, and that’s was certainly one of them.
Onto (hopefully) better days, beginning with tonight’s seven-game slate that has a rare 150-minute gap between the five early games and the two late-night hammers. And there are three potentially massive pieces of news waiting in the wings there: Cade Cunningham and Bojan Bogdanovic questionable for the Pistons, and Zion Williamson for the Pelicans.
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: Sick Back and Watch Me Reverse It
What I do in a lot of these scenarios is simply up my exposure to the later games and get overweight to the news. But tonight, it would appear the field is already opting to do that due to massive ownership on the Kings.
Here’s the current Top 10 most-owned NBA DFS plays on the slate by way of the Stokastic Boom/Bust tool:
Similar to yesterday with the Knicks, there are just a bunch of Kings crowding the top of the board. But unlike the Knicks, this value is far, far, FAR less secure. In fact, two-of-the-four highest-owned dudes on the entire slate are extremely volatile bench guys in Malik Monk and Trey Lyles.
Now, due to the $3,200 price tag on Lyles, I suppose ‘volatility’ is probably not the right word as I know he’s going to get at least some court time and won’t be a complete zero when out there. So expect 16 minutes on the floor for his floor, and 24 on the high-end based completely on how well he’s shooting the basketball. Still, the man is projected for less than 17 fantasy points with a mere 4.13% boom rate, so it’s really about what else his salary allows you to fit into your lineup barring some massive shooting outlier.
Monk, however, freaks the crap out of me at this ownership. And I hate to use purely box scores of his past five games to make a point ever, BUT JUST LOOK AT HIS BOX SCORES OF HIS PAST FIVE GAMES:
The man’s production bell curve is starting to resemble a long, straight line, which is my statistical brain’s way of saying the range of outcomes are WIDE on Monk here. 14 or 34 minutes based on how he’s playing or what they need on the floor makes for a wild piece of chalk on any slate, so he is someone I am looking to short as the ownership rises despite the advantageous salary.
And that’s where my brain is starting to go on this slate: with the unbelievable amount of exposure people are already getting to the evening window, is there anything in the early games we can get overweight to from a value perspective and hope news doesn’t break for people jamming the Kings?
That’s where I want to draw your attention to Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,700) and Bruno Fernando ($3,000). Tomorrow is the trade deadline, and the Hawks downgraded Dejounte Murray to questionable which indicates to me there is a very, very good chance he sits for fear of screwing up a potential deal.
Bogdanovic is a tiny bit more expensive Monk, and Fernando is a tad cheaper than Lyles. But their salaries and roles on their respective teams mirror one another closely enough in these spots that I can’t help but feel like I just want the lower-owned one of the two in each equation, and even if Murray sits, I’d think we’ll see most people still side with the Kings side of that equation.
Be on the lookout for that news plus projections updates, then tune into NBA Live Before Lock with Greg Ehrenberg and I tonight to talk more in-depth about this situation!
NBA DFS Lineup Advice – Nuke of the Night
Oh boy. P.J. Washington. Never good when P.J. Washington is the Nuke of the Night. The day before the trade deadline, no less.
But here we are yet again due to his cheap tag ($5,700), positive-leverage in the Boom/Bust tool, and leverage in general off his teammates in Nick Richards and Miles Bridges who are currently pulling more ownership. Plus, let’s be serious, there will be artificial ownership that is impossible to account for on Brandon Miller with his recent string of play.
Wrap all of that together, and it makes P.J. Washington a phenomenal tournament play for tonight.
