Hey all, it’s Lindy! In this series of articles, I’ll walk you through the essential elements of the main NBA DFS slate every night. Remember, unforeseen events might impact the slate, so consider this information more as guidance than absolute gospel. I’ll spotlight some key decision-making moments for the current slate, aiding you in anticipating changes and fine-tuning your lineups accordingly. Let’s get into today’s NBA DFS lineup advice! For additional NBA DFS lineup suggestions, check out our NBA DFS lineup generator or our industry-leading NBA DFS simulation tools.
NBA DFS Lineup Questions: Key Decisions for Today
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: The Centers of Attention
Not lately, but earlier in the NBA season, we had tons of slates with at least one mega-chalk center plays on DraftKings. Duop Reath, Isaiah Jackson, Trayce Jackson-Davis: these are all examples of super cheap center-only players that have been obvious all-in plays on certain slates. Makes sense, though, right? Backup centers are traditionally good-to-great fantasy producers that have box scores that suffer due to lack of run more than anything else and thus carry low salaries that don’t reflect their upside when you increase their role drastically. And when you get the role swap from a bench big playing 16-20 minutes and ramp them up to 26-30? These guys are Impossible to get away from.
Well, when I say we have a headache on our hands today now that Ivica Zubac has been downgraded to questionable with an illness (which has me leaning towards him being out), I’m saying we have a massive headache. That’s because if you introduce one of Daniel Theis ($3,100) or Mason Plumlee ($3,500) into the starting unit in Zubac’s stead, they’d obviously look like the aforementioned all-in plays on almost every slate they’d appear from now until the end of time.
However, Plumlee and Theis don’t seem like mega-chalk for this slate because center is already LOADED. We’ve got Nikola Jokic and Domantas Sabonis on the expensive end who have been triple-double machines this season. We have Rudy Gobert questionable, which could open up Naz Reid at a reasonable mid-range tag to absorb some ownership. And heck, Zubac could always end up in I suppose, which would be unbelievably tilting, as he is $5,600 and would be the second-highest owned center if the slate started right now.
Who’s the highest-owned then, you asked? None other than Andre Drummond ($5,200), who it is assumed by the industry could start alongside fellow center Nikola Vucevic ($7,900) against the massive Cleveland frontcourt, which he also did in their last matchup. Drummond is garnering a whopping 51.3% ownership right now and is projected for an absurd 35.19 DraftKings points by Stokastic, making his multiplier nearly 7x. Heck, even if he doesn’t start for some reason, Drummond played 28 minutes and had his minutes overlapped with Vucevic yesterday, making him a strong consideration no matter what. The Bulls did lose embarrassingly at home to an eight-win Pistons team, so maybe Billy Donovan mixes it up to some extent there. But it’s hard not to like Drummond in all formats tonight, especially if a questionable Alex Caruso sits and solidifies Drummond’s minutes (so weird to write the last part of that sentence and actually mean it).
Now, something I say a lot on shows and articles that I haven’t said in a while applies here: the timing of the news can be as important as the news itself. Specifically, today, when we get the Ivica Zubac news — and whether his replacement in the starting five is announced (since there is a $400 gap between the two to consider) — matters so much to what I’ll be doing tonight.
But here’s one little note I want thrown in there: if Drummond doesn’t start, I will firing double-Clippers center lineups (will still contemplate it if he does, although it sounds way less appealing). I’m fairly certain that against Anthony Davis, 48 minutes will be in store for the combination of Theis and Plumlee barring injury or blowout. Not a guarantee, as the Clippers did go super-small to close against a massive Timberwolves frontcourt on January 14th with a Westbrook/Harden/Powell/George/Leonard lineup (they could potentially slide Amir Coffey in there as the Paul George replacement). But considering Davis is an exponentially more dangerous offensive player on the block than Rudy Gobert, having a true center out there would be the prudent play.
