Hey all, it’s Lindy! In this series of articles, I’ll walk you through the essential elements of the main NBA DFS slate every night. Remember, unforeseen events might impact the slate, so consider this information more as guidance than absolute gospel. I’ll spotlight some key decision-making moments for the current slate, aiding you in anticipating changes and fine-tuning your lineups accordingly. Let’s get into today’s NBA DFS lineup advice! For additional NBA DFS lineup suggestions, check out our NBA DFS lineup generator or our industry-leading NBA DFS simulation tools.
NBA DFS Lineup Questions: Key Decisions for Today
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: Changing Your Mind Is More Than Just OK; It’s Encouraged
It’s been a long week of NBA DFS for me. After running incredibly hot for the past few weeks, the train came to a complete stop this week as slate after slate I couldn’t avoid the land mines. And to be honest, it was a combination of bad luck and bad play, as there were more than a few mistakes I made when the cards were flipped and ownership became known.
Nothing is more glaring an example than on Tuesday with the Houston Rockets’ cheap backup wing Cam Whitmore. He was projected for only 10% to 12% ownership depending on where you looked almost the entire day, with his optimal rate sat slightly higher than that and yadda yadda yadda. The point is, about 15 minutes before lock, we had an ownership update that brought him up to 15%, but because I had all of these lovely stats I had looked up and recited and made him the Nuke of the Night and could see the clear path to the smash he could be in this spot against the Pacers, I rolled with the near-60%-ish I had anyway.
Welp, he ended up like 25% owned in everything, and I hated it before the game even tipped off. It was fun for his first rotation as he made everything he looked at before going ice cold, resulting in just 21 minutes of court time and a measly 11.75 fantasy points for the usual 1.15-DraftKings-points-per-minute guy. He bombed my lineups, and a day that otherwise could have had a chance to be salvaged had I just reacted to the new ownership correctly.
Which brings me to this quick, easy lesson right off the bat: It’s OK to change your mind. In life and in NBA DFS. When presented with new information, you are allowed a new reaction. It sucks as I’m normally good at discarding any previous conceptions of a slate when massive news drops. But when the news isn’t as slate-changing as “Player X is in” or “Player Y has been scratched” — and you want to keep your same “player take” to be proven right or whatever — changing your opinion is more difficult.
So less ego, more reacting to the data. After all, I work at a data company. Perhaps respond to the dang data, Eric.
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: The Pelicans Big Three
Today’s slate has massive chalk by way of Houston at the moment, plus Tyrese Maxey’s status after a downgrade to questionable. But since they’re the first two games off the bat, let’s dive into something more granular for the sake of being productive.
Inexplicably, the Pelicans handed the Clippers a beatdown to make it four straight W’s for them, and yet the salaries for Brandon Ingram ($7,700), Zion Williamson ($7,100) and C.J. McCollum ($6,700) were slashed across the board on DraftKings. I suppose that makes it fun to get to this team against a Lakers defense that doesn’t even have to pretend to try anymore, as D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves surely aren’t out there for giga-minutes every night due to defensive prowess. And the spot could potentially be even more fun should Jonas Valanciunas sit here (hello, revenge-narrative Larry Nance Jr., how are you this fine evening?).
But something I haven’t busted out here in this article yet this year is the NBA DFS Player Compare Tool over at Stokastic. And it’s at least fascinating to look at a two 1v1’s amongst teammates here, starting with Williamson vs. Ingram:
With Williamson the chalkier of the two options, I assumed I’d be landing on more of him in my first run of 150 lineups in the Stokastic Sims tool. But similar to what is showing out in the Player Compare tool, it’s actually Ingram that I landed on the most of. He carries the SG/SF multi-positional eligibility, and the leverage isn’t nearly as egregious. Don’t forget as well: Williamson is technically questionable here, so making sure you’re not in no man’s land at his salary in the late-night window at this type of ownership also makes him less appealing to me.
Next up: Williamson vs. McCollum:
With nearly identical projections and comparable ownership, this felt like a coin toss to begin with and that’s exactly what bore out in the data. Far more minimal leverage for McCollum as well, but PG-only wasn’t going to have him running away from Williamson here despite the $400 in savings. We’ll see what other value emerges and at what position: in the end that will most likely dictate each’s optimal rates (currently heavily in favor of McCollum) and subsequently, which one I roster more of. But in summary: have some of these Pelicans in the late-night hammer. Good talk.
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: Nuke of the Night
Kevin Durant got the Nuke of the Night back on track yesterday, so let’s stick with a spend-up: Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks have been atrocious in the Doc Rivers era (why is this an era again?), going 1-5 and sputtering big time entering the All-Star Break next week. But yesterday they faced the Timberwolves who are first in adjusted defensive rating this season.
The Charlotte Hornets? Dead last. Would obviously prefer Damian Lillard out for this one, but looks like I will be jamming Greek Freak in this spot. Think it’d be wise to do the same.
