The NBA rolls on with intriguing slates at both DraftKings and FanDuel this evening. DraftKings’ main-slate contests feature all six of today’s games, while FanDuel’s only feature the first four. I’ll spotlight some key decision-making moments for the current slate, aiding you in anticipating changes and fine-tuning your lineups accordingly. Let’s get into today’s NBA DFS lineup advice! For additional NBA DFS lineup suggestions, check out our NBA DFS lineup generator or our industry-leading NBA DFS simulation tools.
NBA DFS Lineup Questions: Key Decisions for Today
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: One Game to Rule Them All, One Game to Find Them
We’re back to the late swap streets on Monday, but Friday was still a successful dive into the game theory and data-driven decision-making that we can revisit on non-late swap slates if they show back up. But I’m excited for this slate for one reason and one reason alone: the Washington Wizards-Utah Jazz game projects out to be a fantasy goldmine.
Let’s set the stage: it’s a six-game slate on DraftKings, only four on FanDuel with WAS-UTA being the cut-off point. It’s the highest total of the evening by a considerable margin on the FanDuel slate at 241. While OKC/LAL is relatively close at 238, it features far more expensive options to pay up for. That’s because, as far as we know, everyone from that late-night hammer is playing, so it’s hard to find any sort of value in it.
We might as well call the Utah Jazz the Utah Value today because they’ll be without Walker Kessler again and Lauri Markkanen now joins him on the bench, which is really the piece of news that moves the needle. Plus, from the absolute clouds, Keyonte George was given the midday downgrade to questionable due to an illness, which never bodes well for a player’s chances of suiting up. Oh, and did I mention they’re facing the fastest-paced team and worst defense in the entire NBA? Yeah, we’re going to roster a lot of dudes in Jazz jerseys today.
But the Wizards are no slouches themselves. You know what, let’s just show you every player from this game in the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool while we’re at it, ordered by highest-owned to lowest-owned on DraftKings:
The first thing that sticks out immediately is uber-chalk Kyle Kuzma. He’s the highest-owned piece from the entire game, which makes complete sense to me at just $7,400. In competitive spots — which had been becoming more frequent for the Wizards until the Clippers smashed their faces in last Friday — Kuzma routinely sees minutes up into the high 30s with a 30.1% usage rate on the year. He pairs that with an 18.9% defensive rebounding rate that has since ticked up to 19.9% over the past month without Daniel Gafford there. Still, it’s all systems go for him being in lineups despite the negative leverage, as he is the highest-projected player from the highest-total game. Pretty useful.
After Kuzma, the next four highest-owned players come from the Jazz, which isn’t surprising. Collin Sexton is the most expensive active player on the team at $6,900, and it’s not ideal to have shooting guard-only positional eligibility on a short slate where more the lineup spots a player can fit into gives you more cracks at the optimal lineup. But if George ends up getting ruled out? Who cares, Sexton’s minutes get solidified instantly, and he becomes a top priority as well — not that he isn’t already.
But here’s the real headache of the slate: Talen Horton-Tucker. He was re-inserted into the rotation two games ago, and that creates a world where he’s already mega-chalk because (1) he’s projected for 18-20 minutes everywhere even before any potential George news, (2) he’s a 1.10 DraftKings points per minute producer on the season, and (3) he has the most advantageous position eligibility you can have on DraftKings (SG/SF). I also assume Brice Sensabaugh gets the starting nod in place of Markkanen tonight, which downgrades any sort of potential upside to THT’s minutes.
The downside? It’s Talen Horton-Tucker! If he comes out flat, we’ve seen time and time again in his time with the Lakers and now with the Jazz that he will get the quickest of quick hooks should he be turning the ball over or bricking everything with his 24.3% usage rate on the year. Now, he’s such a good per-minute performer that I honestly think that if the slate started now, I’d be over the field, but I cannot tell you how uncomfortable it makes me. But should he get the surprise start, all of those fears go away, and I will be jamming him in and living with the result.
As for the rest, it’s going to come down big time to what happens with Keyonte George, as Tyus Jones at point guard only would be in well north of half my lineups if I don’t have that tournament pivot to play with. John Collins looks sublime at $6,500, and, with no Walker Kessler, he should be in line for a few extra minutes. I could go on and on, but at the end of the day, I will most likely have two players MINIMUM from each team in each lineup I make. I’m not sure we’ve had this perfect combination of a potent game environment plus super-insanely cheap prices all year, so there is zero chance I won’t be overweight to it as a whole.
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: Lindy’s NUKE OF THE NIGHT
If there was ever — and I do mean EVER — a time to jam Jordan Poole in tournaments, this is it. He is a $6,000 PG/SG against this abysmal Jazz defensive backcourt. He has played 38 minutes in two of the past four games off the bench.
With low-usage Bilal Coulibaly back and presumed to be in the starting lineup, usage Corey Kispert (20.3% usage rate) and Landry Shamet (19.4%) should play less. Poole currently clocks in at sub-10% ownership right now with potentially even lower marks barring what happens with Sexton and Clarkson if Keyonte George is ruled out.
Trust me: I hate it, too. But Jordan Poole is your Nuke of the Night.
