Are we about to talk NBA DFS lineup advice for Wednesday? Well, yes, but keep in mind that unexpected news may shake things up, so consider this as guidance rather than absolute truth.
I’ll highlight key decision points for tonight’s slate to help you better anticipate developments and optimize your lineups. Let’s dive into today’s NBA DFS lineup tips! For additional NBA DFS advice, explore our NBA DFS lineup generator or our industry-leading NBA DFS simulation tools.
NBA DFS Lineup Advice – January 24
If you’ve watched almost any DFS show since the beginning of time, you’ve probably heard a back-and-forth that went something like this:
HOST: What do you think about ________ tonight?
ANALYST: I think they’re a good tournament play.
While guilty of saying exactly that a time or two myself, it’s lazy analysis. Mainly because super chalky plays can be good tournament plays. Super low-owned plays can be horrible tournament plays. And while I think we all hear ‘good tournament play’ and infer something along the lines of ‘low-owned with upside’, that’s pretty vague if you ask me.
So let’s add some context, shall we? After all, I give you the Nuke of the Night every day in this article, which is in essence a low-owned play that’s going overlooked by the field and thus someone I plan on being well overweight to. And while neither Bogdan Bogdanovic (due to being the highest-owned on play on the slate already) nor Bojan Bogdanovic (due to not being a particularly good play) fall into that category, they do have the same last name! Just kidding, but promise I’ll get to the point.
Here are the completely unrelated Bogdanovic’s:
Bogdan projects for nearly 6x his salary, would currently appear optimal on this slate a quarter of the time if no other news dropped, and despite being shooting guard only, plays in the late-night hammer to give you that ultimate flexibility throughout the night.
He also walks into more minutes absent Trae Young and around a 0.5% uptick in usage in 547 minutes without him on the floor this season, so, no question you could walk into plenty of shares of him. Moreover, despite the extreme negative leverage, be just fine rolling him out in tournaments. In fact, he showed up in 58% of my top 150 lineups in my first spin of the Stokastic Sims Tool today (a must for DFS players).
Bojan on the other hand is another shooting dependent, single-position player who projects for exactly 5 fantasy points less than his non-brethren. He’s $200 less as well, but carries just an 8.7% chance to be optimal, and could possibly be getting usage hog Cade Cunningham back in the lineup alongside him tonight.
His boom score is also less, his chances of being useful on this slate is drastically less, and yet the way people talk about tournament plays, I guarantee you Bojan fits the mold more for the prototypical ‘good tournament play’ than Bogdan. That is not only inaccurate, but wildly inaccurate according to the data.
The point I’m trying to make is this: chalk is chalk for a reason, especially in 2024 as the fields has become more data-oriented and less picks-driven. And while what makes every day of DFS fun is the changing variables from slate-to-slate (matchups, salary, etc.), don’t forget that you can absolutely 100% play chalkier options since the lineup as a whole is what matters most.
Well, that and catering the lineup to the contest you’re playing in and the payout to first, but that will be a lesson for another day. But if you want to get a jumpstart on that tutorial, check out the Stokastic Sims Tool for yourself right HERE.
NUKE OF THE NIGHT
We talked mostly game theory today, so I’ll give you a super low-owned ‘pick’ so to speak that also involves game theory on the way out the door: Kevin Durant.
Dallas could potentially be a massive target on this slate pending what happens with Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and Dante Exum, all of whom are both questionable. And due to the chalkiness of the aforementioned Bogdan Bogdanovic and his teammate Dejounte Murray, the field will have plenty of guard spots to swap onto the Jaden Hardy’s and Tim Hardaway Jr.’s of the world pending their statuses.
Which leaves us the money to spend up at forward, which has me landing on tons of Victor Wembanyama ($8,300) and Durant ($9,300) as I build hours before this slate begins. If I knew Doncic and/or Kyrie were out before lock, I’m sure I’d also unlock more than my fair share of power forward Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000), but that game locks 30 minutes before PHO/DAL and 90 minutes before OKC/SAS. And considering the optimal rates between Durant and Giannis are nearly identical, I’m opting to backload my lineups to react to that news and intertwine more Kevin Durant in them.
