Hey all, it’s Lindy! In this series of articles, I’ll walk you through the essential elements of the main NBA DFS slate every night. Remember, unforeseen events might impact the slate, so consider this information more as guidance than absolute gospel. I’ll spotlight some key decision-making moments for the current slate, aiding you in anticipating changes and fine-tuning your lineups accordingly. Let’s get into today’s NBA DFS lineup advice! For additional NBA DFS lineup suggestions, check out our NBA DFS lineup generator or our industry-leading NBA DFS simulation tools.
NBA DFS Lineup Questions: Key Decisions for Today
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: If You Can’t Stand the Heat, Get Out of the Kitchen
Monday was pretty mild for me despite being significantly overweight to a sub-20% Victor Wembanyama triple-double with blocks (LOL), but that’s the way things go in the NBA DFS streets sometimes. You need to find a way to get all the pieces together and, you know, avoid injuries to guys you have 100% of (yes, this is a Scotty Pippen Jr. third quarter injury complaint).
I’ll attempt to move on here as we talk Tuesday’s six-gamer with a nice late-swap window. The oft-injured Trail Blazers have Scoot Henderson listed as questionable, and the Timberwolves are on the tail end of a back-to-back facing them, so perhaps some shenanigans can lead to an edge in that department.
But no doubt the key situation of today’s slate is what the heck the Miami Heat rotation looks like. They lost both Terry Rozier and Josh Richardson to impactful injuries on Sunday against the Celtics, and Jimmy Butler will be out for personal reasons as he grieves a death in the family. Oh, and Duncan Robinson also got dinged up playing 33 minutes against Boston as his teammates were dropping like flies, so he’s either going to be the most popular player on tonight’s slate or inactive with a shoulder injury — no in-between.
Now, Miami hasn’t been a value team on a DFS slate in quite some team, and it’s pretty easy to see why: 97.1 possessions per 48 minutes (27th in NBA), 114.2 adjusted defensive rating (10th) and 15.0 seconds per possession on defense (30th). In other words, the Heat play slow, and they make their opposition play slow — not the best combo for fantasy goodness.
Luckily, their opposition is a Milwaukee Bucks team on the tail end of a back-to-back, and its pace profile is the antithesis of the Heat: 101.8 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in NBA), 116.3 adjusted defensive rating (18th) and 14.1 seconds per possession on defense (1st). So while being a massive downgrade spot for the Bucks resulting in virtually zero ownership on their side of the ball, the opposite is true of the Heat:
The Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool has virtually no one coming up with positive leverage at the moment, and yet, trust me: You’re going to want to roster a few of these fine fellows in just about every lineup you make (news pending, of course). If Robinson plays, he’s the easiest plug-and-play due to SG/SF eligibility and the cheap $4,200 price tag. And if he doesn’t play, well, godspeed to us all.
But check out the top exposures in my current top 150 lineups in the Stokastic Sims Tool:
It is not surprising whatsoever to have all Heat at the top of the board, but two things are a bit surprising: 1) Bam Adebayo/Kevin Love taking up both center/flex spots in a decent chunk of lineups, and 2) Tyler Herro showing up for me more than Robinson!
Let’s start with the first part of that equation: Adebayo and Love have only shared the floor for 135 minutes with Butler off the floor this season, but Adebayo produces 1.12 DraftKings points per minute and has a 29.1% usage rate in that time. Love’s rates when they share the floor? Just 0.79 DraftKings points per minute and a paltry 13.6% usage. It is a very limited sample size, but no doubt Adebayo will hinder Love’s ability to produce in whatever minutes they actually share the floor together tonight.
And second, Tyler Herro mega-chalk: What could possibly go wrong? But the rates do signify he’s worthy of being your highest-exposed player on tonight’s slate should no other news break: 1.07 DraftKings points per minute with Butler off the floor this year and a 26.1% usage that slightly trails Adebayo’s 27.4% mark. And considering he’s $6,900 in a pace-up spot, it is hard not to like Herro’s chances of smashing in this spot relative to any other guard on the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: Nuke of the Night
Dennis Schroder. Want all the reasons why? Tune into NBA Live Before Lock at 6:30 p.m. ET/3:30 p.m. PT to hear Greg Ehrenberg and I break down tonight’s slate for you with updated news!
