What’s up all, Lindy here! This article series will walk you through the key parts of the main NBA DFS slate every evening. Unexpected news could always come from nowhere to rattle a slate, so don’t take this as gospel. But here are a handful of key decision points for tonight’s slate that I’ll be factoring in so you are better prepared for what’s to come and can optimize your lineups accordingly. Let’s get right into today’s NBA DFS lineup advice! Need more NBA DFS lineup advice? Check out our NBA DFS lineup generator or our industry-leading NBA DFS simulation tools.
NBA DFS Lineup Questions: Key Decisions for Today
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: A Small Slate Debate
NBA contests dried up yesterday due to the NFL doubleheader, but they’re back in full force for tonight’s three-game slate. We have some fascinating storylines across every matchup and an abundance of studs to pay up for, which makes for entertaining/frustrating roster construction.
Let’s begin our foray into this slate with the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool and glance at the top of the board, where four $10,000, four $9,000 and five $8,000 players loom:
The ownership appears to be gravitating towards Domantas Sabonis, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Kawhi Leonard at the moment, pulling ownership north of 30%. And considering they 1) span across multiple positions, and 2) don’t carry exorbitant salaries north of $11,000 like Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid, it is “easy” to build out lineups with all three.
Now, why exactly did I type “easy” in quotes? Allow me to explain by pulling up the five most-owned plays on tonight’s slate:
Reggie Jackson is pulling some wild-yet-somewhat-understandable ownership due to the $3,900 price tag. Peyton Watson gives you extreme savings at a puntable power forward spot despite a minutes projection in just the high-teens. Russell Westbrook has an increased profile due to extended closing minutes in a small-ball closing lineup on Sunday. And Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is always live to walk into a hot shooting night and is guaranteed the minutes to do so.
But that is some uncomfortable value, if you ask me! Jackson is a back-up point guard projected to play just 22 minutes. Watson is just over 0.80 DraftKings points per minute and could bury you by playing even less backup five considering DeAndre Jordan makes sense in the matchup. Westbrook doesn’t have to close whatsoever if they opt to go a big instead. And Caldwell-Pope is … well, Caldwell-Pope.
That’s where the push-and-pull debate always exists on these slates: Can we afford to get to the studs up top based on the slate’s value? Well, fortunately for today, you can’t afford NOT to take shots at the studs over and over again in all of your lineups. The value is already thin to say the very least, and so long as that maintains, rotating around sketchiness while jamming raw fantasy points ad nauseum feels like the way do things. I’ll have the Sims tool help me the rest of the way, and hopefully you do, too!
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: Nuke of the Night
I’ll be attending the Kings-Suns game in-person this evening, and as such it’s only right that someone from that game becomes my go-to play. And with Keegan Murray questionable, there is actual value that could show up to replace his 32-ish minutes per night. We also have a super chalky Watson I would currently be looking to short at current ownership, which brings me to perhaps the most obscure Nuke of the Night in quite some time: Trey Lyles.
Lyles is coming off a season-high 33 minutes against Milwaukee on Sunday due to the in-game Murray injury. Depending on the time of Murray’s announcement, Lyles could end up incredibly chalky. But if the news drops after the lock of Nuggets-76ers, you could be looking at the best value play on the slate in a $4,800 Lyles at severely reduced ownership. In the event Murray plays, a hip issue could limit his minutes ever so slightly to increase the profile of Lyles as a low-owned dart to rotate around in lineups, just like all the other sketchy value I alluded to. The minutes range of outcomes is wide for Lyles here, but there are many ways this play can pan out for you pending the ownership.
