Hey everyone, it’s Lindy! In this article series, I’ll guide you through the crucial components of the main NBA DFS slate each night. Keep in mind that unexpected news may disrupt the slate, so take this information as advice rather than absolute truth. I’ll highlight a few pivotal decision points for tonight’s slate, helping you better anticipate developments and optimize your lineups accordingly. Let’s dive into today’s NBA DFS lineup advice! If you’re looking for more NBA DFS lineup picks, explore our NBA DFS lineup generator or our industry-leading NBA DFS simulation tools.
NBA DFS Lineup Questions: Key Decisions for Today
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: A Rivalry Not Reborn
When recording my betting video last night over on the OddsShopper channel (check it out HERE), I was pretty sure the Lakers stars were going to duck the Celtics as double-digit dogs in Boston. It sucks for TNT, as having LeBron James and Anthony Davis in a historical rivalry game is kind of what they want from the NBA in these spots. But alas, both stars will be sitting, and now we’re looking at an abundance of value in the first game of the night.
Ownership is still settling as of writing this, but here’s a first glance of the available Lakers for tonight in the Stokastic Boom/Bust tool:
Only one $7,000 player, only one $6,000 player, everyone else sub-$5,000? Yeah, we’re going to be rostering Lakers tonight. Priority No. 1 is without a doubt Austin Reaves, who at $6,200 is the single best piece of value on the slate. He averages a DraftKings point per minute and sees a minutes, usage, and assist rate bump in the absence of the two Lakers starts and officially clocks in at 1.29 DraftKings points per minute in a small 129-minute sample with James and Davis off the floor this season. Setting him at just 33 minutes, he’s showing up in a vast majority of a lineups during my first run of the Stokastic Sims.
D’Angelo Russell has risk purely due to salary combined with the potential blowout, but there is no doubt he’s still a fantastic option at $7,300. He should play the most minutes on the team barring blowout and carries an unsustainable-yet-noteworthy 1.48 DraftKings points per minute absent James and Davis this year, albeit in a mere 77-minute sample size. He has slightly lower usage in the sample (27.1%) than Reaves in his (30.3%), but that can easily go either way for me.
So we have the no-brainers out of the way; let’s dive into whom else we believe is going to start. I might be in the minority here, but I strongly believe Jarred Vanderbilt has played his way into the Lakers starting lineup with his recent string of play. I find it likely he’ll start over Rui Hachimura or Jaxson Hayes, plus the Lakers have absolutely no ammunition coming off the bench in this scenario, so Hachimura becoming sixth man makes too much sense to me. This is the first game of the night, so it’s not insanely pertinent, but having a game plan in place for these different starting scenarios is what matters.
If indeed we get Russell/Reaves/Prince/Vanderbilt/Hayes like I’m anticipating, and if that news comes out super late, Hachimura will receive a terrifying-but-necessary downgrade from me. He’ll still garner tons of ownership at $4,000 on DraftKings no matter what tonight — and I’ll certainly still have him in the pool — but the risk of missing that final rotation at astronomical ownership would make me inclined to undercut him. And even if he’s coming off the bench, the $4,600 tag on Vanderbilt should keep his ownership in check, making him and his perhaps my favorite tournament target from the Lakers relative to ownership.
Oh, and final note for now: Christian Wood is a smash at $4,000. He’s a phenomenal fantasy producer, has tons of frontcourt minutes available and potential blowout run. After undercutting him on Tuesday, the opposite will most likely be true for me on Thursday.
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: Nuke of the Night
With a massive amount of ownership getting gobbled up by Lakers at the center position, give me all the Paul Reed in all the land from the late-night hammer. The 76ers backup center will certainly be getting the start tonight in Utah with Joel Embiid on the shelf, and it’s not like he’s pulling no ownership already at 33.7%. But I will be substantially over that number barring some unforeseen news bomb happening, as the massive Jazz frontcourt will require as many minutes from him and his 1.03 DraftKings points per minute.
