Hey all, it’s Lindy! In this series of articles, I’ll walk you through the essential elements of the main NBA DFS slate every night. Remember, unforeseen events might impact the slate, so consider this information more as guidance than absolute gospel. I’ll spotlight some key decision-making moments for the current slate, aiding you in anticipating changes and fine-tuning your lineups accordingly. Let’s get into today’s NBA DFS lineup advice! For additional NBA DFS lineup suggestions, check out our NBA DFS lineup generator or our industry-leading NBA DFS simulation tools.
NBA DFS Lineup Questions: Key Decisions for Today
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: Late-Night Lindy’s! Let’s Get Weird!
Look, I am fully aware just how much written DFS content there is out there. While EMac is the gold standard — he’s been around since the Gold Rush, after all — there’s a lot of other good stuff around the industry on a daily basis focused solely on every main slate every single day.
But considering Friday presents us with the most perfectly sectioned four-game late slate — and some worthwhile contests such as the $4-entry, $30,000-to-first on DraftKings to go with it — I decided to break away from the pack and focus solely on that in today’s article. If you want main slate coverage, literally look at anything else.
Let’s start by setting up the Stokastic Sims tool with a 5,000 lineup pool as our jumping off point and see what chalk is rising to the top:
Why, hello Spurs! It is always fun when Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan are staring you in the face as two of the most popular plays on any slate. Smack dab in the middle of them is assumed spot-starter Matisse Thybulle of the Trail Blazers — if he doesn’t start, I will be hitting eject on him so face it’s not even funny. And how about Jaden McDaniels and Dalano Banton thrown in as salary relief options? My oh my, is this slate setting up beautifully for tournaments.
There’s also no late-swap edge to speak of with three games tipping off at 10 p.m. ET and Spurs/Lakers locking at 10:30 p.m. ET, so may the best data win! That’s where I’m rather confident in the Stokastic Sims winning the day, especially if coupled with an ROI boost to one or two of these three potential super-low-owned GPP targets I have my eye on for the DraftKings late slate.
1. Duop Reath — $3,300 / 6.8% Projected Ownership
Backup centers have long been a short-slate go-to to get different for me, as one of foul trouble, blowout or injury to a starting center could open up the floodgates to what are normally good fantasy producers. That’s the case here with Reath, who averages 1.01 DraftKings points per minute and has seen his salary dip down to just $3,300. Any extra playing time to the 16 minutes we currently have him projected for at Stokastic could make him surprisingly valuable, so with a lot of chalkier options on the cheap, I’m surely going to be over on Reath.
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo — $11,700 / 4.8% Projected Ownership
We go to the opposite end of the spectrum to snag Giannis, who I really can’t believe would show up this low-owned on a four-game slate but here we are. Part of it is the price tag, part of it is the flood of ownership at PF/C for Victor Wembanyama and Anthony Davis for much cheaper. And sure, the spot is a disaster against Rudy Gobert and the Timberwolves, who are first in adjusted defensive rating this season. But Giannis is essentially matchup-proof, the game projects to be by far the most competitive in the evening window, and the Bucks need him to do all of the heavy lifting to right the ship that’s been missing its compass since hiring Doc Rivers.
3. Vasilije Micic — $3,800 / 13.1% Projected Ownership
The same way I expect Giannis to come in a tad higher-owned than projected, I’m expected Micic to come in a bit lower-owned than listed. But despite 20 minutes of playing time and going just 1-for-9 from the field last night in Utah, Misic closed over Tre Mann. He found eight assists and a couple boards along the way to buoy his box score, and there are legit just 7.5 Hornets playing a night (sorry, Davis Bertans, you have to be considered as 0.5 at this point). So blowout and he probably closes, competitive game he now has the potential to close — if we’re going to have far more pronounced chalk in Thybulle and McDaniels and Banton, give me Micic to get weird sub-$4,000.
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: Nuke of the Night
I gave you three sub-15% options above, so let’s finish out with my favorite overall play of the late slate combining projection and ownership: Anthony Edwards. Milwaukee brings pace and defensive ineptitude to the table, which plays directly into Edwards skillset and should led to him smashing at $8,700 here. He’s pulling sub-25% ownership in our projections right now (23.8%), he’s projected north of 45 fantasy points (46.35 to be exact), and the SG/SF eligibility gives him access to five potential spots in lineups, making him the no-doubt Nuke of the Night for me.
