Hey all, it’s Lindy! In this series of articles, I’ll walk you through the essential elements of the main NBA DFS slate every night. Remember, unforeseen events might impact the slate, so consider this information more as guidance than absolute gospel. I’ll spotlight some key decision-making moments for the current slate, aiding you in anticipating changes and fine-tuning your lineups accordingly. Let’s get into today’s NBA DFS lineup advice! For additional NBA DFS lineup suggestions, check out our NBA DFS lineup generator or our industry-leading NBA DFS simulation tools.
NBA DFS Lineup Questions: Key Decisions for Today
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: And All That Jazz
Welcome back, my dear friends! Hope the All-Star Break treated you well, but it’s time to lock in once more as we tackle this 10-game main slate over on DraftKings. Wish whoever is in charge of pricing over there was a little locked in themselves, but such is life. Let’s just dig into the chalkiest team on the slate (and rightfully so), the Utah Jazz.
Let’s pull up the entire team on Stokastic’s NBA Boom/Bust Tool as a starting point:
New starting point guard Keyonte George being priced at $4,700 despite playing 30 minutes nightly now is just absurd. Negative leverage be damned; if you’re building out 150 lineups, best of luck eliminating him from the portfolio and feeling remotely good about that decision. In fact, just one piece of chalk beat him out in my first run of top 150 lineups in the Stokastic Sims:
Yeah, it is safe to say no matter what news comes out of nowhere today, Bennedict Mathurin and George are going to show up in a hefty portion of my lineups.
So George is a no-brainer part of the portfolio, but what about the rest of the Jazz? It is wild to see Lauri Markkanen way down the list of priorities here, but I see that remaining the case. And Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson are going to be mixed and matched into lineups with no regard for George already being there, although they’ll be first to go instead of the rookie considering their current popularity and higher salaries.
What I’m not sure of, however, is how people treat the frontcourt situation between John Collins and Walker Kessler. Sure, there’s also negative leverage to be had rostering either, but they’re at price points that makes me inclined to invest in them here considering the Hornets are dead-last in defensive efficiency this season, dead-last in effective field goal percentage against and 26th in opposition field goal percentage at the rim.
That’s where the underutilized Player Compare Tool at Stokastic can be of some assistance:
It’s Collins, and it’s not even close! It’s pretty wild what the extra power forward eligibility can do for a player’s optimal percentage and thus this head-to-head matchup, but it’s very clear that our tools prefer undercutting Kessler at this sort of ownership. Obviously, things can (and essentially will) change on a 10-game slate with this much injury news. But if this slate started now, I’d be over on George and undercutting Kessler.
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: Nuke of the Night
There are lots of post-All-Star Break illnesses across the association tonight — or just lame excuses to potentially give key players some extended time off. But what happens if some of these questionable players end up giving it a go? Well, a lot of times, they end up under-owned.
Enter Brandon Ingram. He’s one of those questionable illnesses I spoke of, but if he plays with his SG/SF eligibility, he fits easily as a contrarian piece to any lineup. And since the beginning of this month, Ingram’s boasted a team-leading 31.3% assist rate along with a hefty 27.1% usage, which looks mighty fine at just $8,300. He has positive leverage, virtually no ownership due to the matchup against Houston’s stout defense, and if he doesn’t play, he gives you some extra versatility — not that you need it with the aforementioned Jazz pieces locking an hour later.
So Nuke of the Night with an asterisk: Brandon Ingram if he suits up!
