What’s up all, Lindy here! This article series will walk you through the key parts of the main NBA DFS slate every evening. Unexpected news could always come from nowhere to rattle a slate, so don’t take this as gospel. But here are a handful of key decision points for tonight’s slate that I’ll be factoring in so you are better prepared for what’s to come and can optimize your lineups accordingly. Let’s get right into today’s NBA DFS lineup advice! Need more NBA DFS lineup advice? Check out our NBA DFS lineup generator or our industry-leading NBA DFS simulation tools.
NBA DFS Lineup Questions: Key Decisions for Today
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: The Philly Special
Mondays have been awfully kind to me of late in the NBA DFS streets. A week ago, I split first place in the main $15 on DraftKings for $30,000, and last night I tied for second in the $44.44 Medium Leaderboard Special for a $2,500 score:
I wrote up three plays in featured portion of my article yesterday — Luka Doncic and Donte DiVincenzo — and both were no-doubt additions to my single-entry lineup when lock turned around. And with Dante Exum and Derrick Jones Jr. both ruled out for the Mavericks, I made my way onto a sub-1% Tim Hardaway Jr. in the mid-range, who showed out for the first time in a long time, catapulting my lineup into contention.
Let’s keep that momentum going into today as we attack this interesting five-game slate that lays before us with some potentially complicated late-swap situations. First off, all of the Knicks starters plus Quentin Grimes remain way underpriced, as salaries didn’t have time to adjust for their new solidified roles we witnessed against Charlotte on Monday. No matter how news shakes out this evening, they’ll be some of the most sought-after pieces of value on the slate.
We also got word early this afternoon that Anthony Davis will be sitting for the Lakers, so there’s some stellar plays in LeBron James, D’Angelo Russell and some frontcourt combination of Rui Hachimura and/or Christian Wood that were unlocked. There’s a part of me that’s worried the Lakers will opt to dust off Jaxson Hayes for the spot start at center, but considering that game starts at the 7:30 p.m. ET lock time, along with two other games, that’s of no concern until it happens.
What is a concern to me, however, is when we get the Philadelphia 76ers injury information. Both Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid missed last night’s game in Portland and enter tonight as questionable against the Golden State Warriors, and BOY, could this be the sweat of the century if we don’t have that news before lock.
I say this a lot on shows, but it bears repeating here in this column: I truly believe that in NBA DFS, sometimes the timing of the news can be as important as the news itself. And how you choose to handle the potential uncertainty of the 76ers news on this slate could define your evening for the better or the worse. But there is zero doubt that, with the way I play NBA DFS, I am praying to Injury Report Gods that this news comes out after lock, as I would be way overweight to almost every single Sixers player and embracing the unknown.
Let me try to explain why by looking at the entire Sixers roster in the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool:
The first thing that should stick out is the obvious positive leverage for all three of Embiid, Maxey and Tobias Harris, who was limited to just 20 minutes after the Trail Blazers ran away with last night’s game in the third quarter. Embiid has the top fantasy point projection on this slate by a ways, Maxey has seen his salary dip $1,200 the past two weeks, and Harris has the SF/PF that gives him slightly more paths to pan out optimally. If only one of Embiid or Maxey plays, you surely want the other two. If Embiid and Maxey sit again, Harris is one of the best plays on the slate. And if Embiid plays period, you just want more than 5.6% of him, which is his current DraftKings ownership.
But that’s not the only scenario you should be building for: I said just a second ago that if Embiid and Maxey sit, you’d want some Harris in your life, but you’d also want a lot of these other 76ers. Take a look at last night’s rotations sans Embiid and Maxey:
Had the game been more competitive, Paul Reed could have been in line for 30-plus minutes, and as 1.05-DraftKings-point-per-minute producer, those minutes plus that rate that would look exceptional at $5,700 tonight without Embiid. Patrick Beverley and Kelly Oubre saw 30-plus minutes each and would surely do so again tonight in a majority of game scripts if there’s no Maxey. And due to price points alone, a $4,000 Mo Bamba as the backup center or a Danuel House as wing depth at $3,600 could provide palatable value at a cheaper price point than currently viable tonight.
So knowing NBA DFS, as soon as this article is submitted, 7e6rs news will surely drop and a lot of this will be for not. But getting in the habit of piecing together a game plan for different slates based on different injury scenarios and different game start times is a worthwhile endeavor. For example, get familiar for how you might have to swap certain lineups to Warriors players if the news breaks against you, such as leaving $100 on the table if rostering Reed ($5,700) in the flex so you can pay up for Jonathan Kuminga ($5,800) if need be. After all, it’s those small steps that will help you make big leaps in your NBA DFS play.
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: Nuke of the Night
After all of that work to break down the Sixers, how could it not be Joel Embiid if he plays? We already have some phenomenal value in the early window of games, so even at $12,000 he’s more accessible than he ought to be. He’s projected for the most raw points on the slate (61.27 DraftKings fantasy points), more than 6 points higher than LeBron James (54.47 DraftKings fantasy points). And if he doesn’t play? At least Stephen Curry is there at $9,100 to help soften the blow. So have him in your flex, and we’ll see when and how this news comes to fruition!
