DFS has expanded beyond traditional salary cap formats and NBA pick’em contests on sites like PrizePicks and Underdog offer a fun yet strategic alternative. The goal is simple: Pick whether a player will go more or less a given stat line. However, success in NBA pick’em requires more than just guessing. Here’s how you can use smart strategies like correlation and like Stokastic’s pick’em optimizers to get better at NBA DFS pick’em contests.
NBA DFS Correlation: Pick’em Strategy for PrizePicks, Underdog & More
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Leverage NBA DFS Correlation for Better Results
In NBA pick’em, player performance is often intertwined. If you correctly predict that a point guard will rack up assists, it stands to reason that his primary scorers are likely to benefit in the scoring department, and vice versa. If you take the “more” on a point guard’s assists, consider pairing it with the more on points for one or multiple scorers on the same team.
Also, high-paced games create more possessions, increasing opportunities for stats like points, assists and rebounds. Identifying matchups where both teams push the pace can help boost your chances of hitting “mores” on correlated picks. Conversely, low-paced matchups create good opportunities to go for “less” plays.
Maximize Early Opportunities: Beat Line Movements
One major edge in NBA pick’em is being faster than the operators. PrizePicks and Underdog update their lines based on betting markets and injury news, but sometimes you can get ahead:
When a star player is announced as questionable or out, these projections can lag behind. If you can quickly adjust to this news, you can target backups or remaining starters who will benefit from the absence. For example, if a top player is ruled out late, jump on the “more” for the next man up in points or rebounds before the lines move.
Stokastic’s pick’em optimizers makes it easier by highlighting value spots before the market adjusts. With a real-time edge, you’ll consistently lock in plays with better expected value (EV).
Use Stokastic’s Pick’em Optimizers for +EV Opportunities
Making long-term profits in NBA pick’em requires targeting +EV opportunities. Instead of relying on gut instincts, Stokastic’s pick’em optimizers for PrizePicks and Underdog provide a data-driven approach:
Stokastic’s optimizer scans the slate and provides the best picks by comparing projected stats to the lines on PrizePicks and Underdog. The optimizer helps you identify picks where players are projected to go significantly more or less their listed numbers.
By focusing on +EV plays, the optimizer improves your odds of making profitable picks in the long run. Whether you’re playing the “more” on a superstar’s points or “less” on a role player’s assists, it’s about building an entry that has the highest probability of hitting across the board.
These tools eliminate guesswork, providing concrete projections for stats like points, rebounds, assists and blocks.
It’s important to note that pick’em sites like PrizePicks and Underdog may adjust projections if you select multiple picks from the same team in categories like points or assists. Essentially, these sites try to offset correlation by lowering the payout multiplier for each individual pick.
That’s why using a fantasy optimizer is crucial. These payout shifts are factored into the EV calculations, helping you determine if your correlated picks are truly +EV.
Don’t assume that correlated entries are always profitable — be mindful of these payout adjustments and focus on entries that are positive long-term.
Manage Your Bankroll and Limit Risk
Success in NBA pick’em, like all DFS formats, is a long game. Managing your bankroll effectively is crucial to staying profitable more time:
Use Small Percentages of Your Bankroll: Only allocate a small portion of your total bankroll to each entry, usually 1% to 5%. This helps protect you from losing streaks, as even the best strategies won’t hit every night.
Maximize Entry Variability: Spread your entries across different games and stat types. Rather than stacking your entire bankroll on a single projection or game, diversify to reduce risk.
NBA DFS Late Swap and Adjust for Breaking News
If your platform allows it, late swap can be a game-changer. Player news can break right before tip-off, dramatically altering the outlook for some players:
If a star is ruled out late, pivot to players who will see increased usage. For example, if a starting point guard is out, the backup or shooting guard might suddenly be in a much better position to hit the “more” on points or assists.
Always stay plugged into NBA injury news. A well-timed late swap could take advantage of new opportunities or avoid a bad projection where the player is likely to sit or be limited.
Conclusion: Combine Good NBA DFS Correlation Strategy With Pick’em Data
NBA pick’em contests on PrizePicks and Underdog offer a lot of potential for sharp players willing to take a strategic approach. By leveraging correlation, keeping an eye on projection movements and using data-backed tools like Stokastic’s pick’em optimizers, you can consistently find +EV opportunities.
Whether you’re mixing in unders for defensive matchups, identifying breakout performances due to injury news, or simply managing your bankroll smartly, these tips will help you become a better NBA pick’em player. As always, be sure to rely on NBA DFS projections and stay flexible with your entries to maximize your chances for success.
