NBA DFS can be an incredibly competitive space, where finding an edge is key to succeeding in large-field tournaments. One of the most effective ways to differentiate your lineups is by embracing NBA DFS contrarian strategy, where you pivot away from heavily owned players and target undervalued, low-owned options that still offer significant upside. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, you can fine-tune this approach and capitalize on opportunities others might miss. Here’s how.
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NBA DFS Contrarian Strategy: How to Use NBA Ownership Projections
In NBA DFS, contrarian strategy involves targeting players who are projected to be low-owned. The idea is that by avoiding the chalk (popular, high-owned players) and focusing on less obvious choices, you can gain leverage on the field. If these low-owned players perform well, your lineup can quickly rise in tournaments, especially in GPPs.
Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections are invaluable for identifying those lower-owned players that can set you apart from the competition. Released nightly for the main slate, these projections are continuously updated to account for breaking news, including last-minute injury updates. They play a crucial role in revealing the expected popularity of players across different contests.
Take a look at the interface of our NBA DFS Ownership Projections:
Leverage NBA DFS Ownership Projections & Strategy
Ownership projections show you how much of the field is expected to roster a specific player. The more highly owned a player is, the more likely they are to be considered safe or obvious choices.
However, in GPPs, you’re looking for low-owned upside rather than safety. One of the keys to NBA DFS contrarian play is identifying these players who have paths to strong fantasy outputs that the field is avoiding.
Let’s say Nikola Jokic is projected to be the most-owned player on a slate at 45% ownership. In cash games, you likely want to roster Jokic since his high floor makes him a strong play. However, in GPPs, fading Jokic could be a contrarian strategy. Instead of rostering him, you might pivot to another high-ceiling option like Joel Embiid, who may have a similarly high projection but only comes in at 15% ownership. If Embiid outscores Jokic that night, you’ve gained massive leverage on nearly half the field.
Target High-Upside, Low-Owned Players
While ownership projections help identify chalk, you need projections and tools like Stokastic’s NBA Boom/Bust Tool to assess the true upside of contrarian plays. The Boom/Bust Tool provides probabilities of players exceeding their value projection or falling below it.
Imagine you’re deciding between two mid-range players: Jordan Clarkson and O.G. Anunoby. Clarkson is projected for 25% ownership, while Anunoby sits at 8%. Both are similarly priced and project for similar points, but Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool shows that Anunoby has a 30% chance to exceed his value projection, compared to Clarkson’s 15%. In this scenario, Brunson represents a better contrarian play — his ownership is lower, but his path to a high score is just as viable.
Look for Stack Opportunities in Contrarian Games
While game stacking is more prominent in NFL DFS, it can still work in NBA DFS, especially when targeting games with high totals and fast-paced environments. Contrarian stacking involves targeting a game that may not attract much attention but has the potential to explode.
Consider a slate where a matchup between the Lakers and Warriors has a high total and is expected to be heavily targeted. Meanwhile, a game between the Pistons and Pacers has a slightly lower total but features two fast-paced teams. The Pistons-Pacers game might go overlooked, meaning the key players from that game like Cade Cunningham or Tyrese Haliburton could offer significant upside at lower ownership.
By stacking multiple players from that game, you can differentiate your lineup and benefit if that contest becomes a high-scoring affair.
Take Advantage of Late News
In NBA DFS, late-breaking injury news can drastically shift ownership projections and open up new value plays. This is where being adaptable can pay off in a contrarian strategy. When a key player is ruled out close to lock, many DFS players will scramble to pivot onto the obvious replacements.
Let’s say LeBron James is ruled out 15 minutes before lock. The field will likely flock to Anthony Davis, who will see increased usage. While Davis may be the obvious play, savvy contrarian players might target another teammate like D’Angelo Russell or even pivot to a different game entirely. By avoiding the rush to jam in Davis, you increase your lineup’s uniqueness while still gaining exposure to high-upside plays.
Final Thoughts
NBA DFS contrarian strategy requires a delicate balance between fading the chalk and finding low-owned plays with high upside. By using Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections and NBA Boom/Bust Tool, you can pinpoint undervalued players and situations, giving you an edge over the competition. Remember, this strategy is particularly useful in GPPs, where differentiation can lead to massive paydays.
