We’re back to the madness on Saturday, with a seven-game NBA slate that tips off at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include Stephen Curry and Marvin Bagley III. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Saturday, February 10
NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick
Stephen Curry: Suns-Warriors
Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 3.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,800
With every other stud on the slate either projected to be appropriately owned or over-owned, Stephen Curry is the top contrarian spend-up option on DraftKings at $9,800. Due largely to the emergence of Jonathan Kuminga, Curry comes into tonight’s action averaging an unspectacular 43.9 DraftKings points per game. With at least 60 DraftKings points in three out of the past seven games, however, Curry’s upside hasn’t gone anywhere, and while he might be overpriced for his median outcome, he’s too cheap for his ceiling.
Despite his obvious upside on any given night, Curry is going completely overlooked on DraftKings. As of this writing, he’s projected to be in just 1.3% of lineups. While his optimal percentage is only 3.6%, the field still isn’t getting to him at the rate it should be. Rostering Curry will come at a meaningful opportunity cost, but he grades out as one of the top leverage plays on the board and looks like a great differentiator in tournaments.
NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick
Marvin Bagley III: 76ers-Wizards
Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 15.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,500
Marvin Bagley III is the top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $5,500. Although Bagley has been more of a solid player than a spectacular one throughout his NBA career, he might be in the best spot he has ever been in, playing big minutes for a Wizards team without much talent elsewhere. With starting center Daniel Gafford shipped off to Dallas, Bagley should get a ton of run for a Washington team that lacks interior depth.
Despite numerous signs pointing to value here, Bagley is a forgotten man on DraftKings tonight and grades out as the third-best leverage play on the board.
As of this writing, Bagley is projected to be in just 3.3% of lineups but has a huge 15.5% optimal percentage. With Gafford gone and Richaun Holmes questionable to make his Wizards debut, expect Bagley to play massive minutes in what’s all of a sudden a great spot against the 76ers
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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick
Tre Mann: Grizzlies-Hornets
Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 14.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,000
It’s a G-League battle when the Grizzlies meet the Hornets tonight, and newly minted Hornet Tre Mann is the top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $3,000. Coming over from Oklahoma City in the Gordon Hayward trade, Mann should finally get a real shot at minutes on a Charlotte team that desperately needs backcourt depth. Presuming he’s active for tonight’s game, Mann has some monster upside for the flat price of $3,000 and he grades out right behind Marvin Bagley III as the fourth-highest-graded leverage play on the slate.
Despite projecting for only 16.25 fantasy points, Mann is expected to be optimal 14.8% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. Plus, along with only 4% of lineups projected to roster him, he has a higher-than-normal floor for a $3,000 player, which helps with roster flexibility.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Process Show with Josh Engleman on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $158 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5 ahead of Super Bowl 58! Full details here.
