After a small four-game Tuesday night slate, we’re back to the madness on Wednesday for an eight-game NBA slate on DraftKings. In NBA DFS tournaments, setting yourself apart from the competition is crucial for landing those big wins. To gain an edge, incorporating a few low-ownership, contrarian picks is essential. With the support of Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims, projections and NBA boom/bust probability data, we’ll break down the top NBA DFS contrarian strategy and picks for Wednesday, Oct. 30.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks & Ownership Strategy Today
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PG: Jalen Suggs (ORL) – $5,500
Fresh off signing a five-year, $150.5 million contract extension before the season started, Jalen Suggs has been a key catalyst for a 3-1 Magic team that has looked like one of the best squads in the NBA. Suggs has always been sensational on the defensive end, and with his offense taking another step forward in the early parts of the season, Suggs’ contract may very well end up looking like a bargain in the NBA landscape. Either way, Suggs is still too cheap at $5,500 DraftKings, and despite his early-season production, the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate it should.
Suggs is averaging 33.6 DraftKings points per game and finds himself in a great spot tonight against a Bulls team that has been playing at the fastest pace of any team in the NBA. While all the headlines, and deservedly so, went to Paolo Banchero after his monster game against the Pacers, Suggs was spectacular in that game himself, accumulating 25 points, seven assists, five rebounds, one block and one steal across 35 minutes as the Magic came from behind to beat Indiana. Though Suggs benefited from the absence of Franz Wagner in the second half on Monday, Stokastic’s Tools and Sims are extremely high on Suggs again tonight, even with Wagner back in the fold. As of this writing, Suggs is showing up in 28% of the top 300 lineups by ROI, but only 15% of lineups are expected to roster him.
SF/PF: LeBron James (LAL) – $9,000
It’s always nice to be able to roster players of LeBron James’ stature at low ownership. Returning to his hometown for the only time this season, LeBron is more or less getting forgotten about on DraftKings, as his $9,000 price tag is probably too high for his median performance right now. James comes into tonight averaging only 42.9 DraftKings points per game, and outside of his monster game against the Kings, he hasn’t topped 38 fantasy points. That Kings game cannot be forgotten, however, and James’ 70.5 DraftKings points that night suggest that his upside is still extremely high.
Though LeBron is much less likely to hit his upside on a nightly basis at the ripe age of 39, he has the ability to turn it on anytime he steps on the court. Perhaps tonight going back to Cleveland is one of those nights. LeBron is currently projected to be in just 9.0% of lineups, but he appears in 22% of the 300 highest-ROI lineups in the Sims.
C: Nick Richards (CHA) – $4,800
There are a few games on tonight’s slate that stand out from a DFS perspective, and aside from the Hawks-Wizards game, the Toronto-Charlotte game has to be at the top of that list. The Raptors are dealing with a bunch of injuries, and with Scottie Barnes joining Immanuel Quickley on their bench, Toronto looks like arguably the top overall team to target on DraftKings tonight. That said, Charlotte is also in a really good spot matched up with this depleted Raptors team, and no one besides on the Hornets LaMelo Ball is picking up much steam. While I like a few different pieces of the Hornets in tournaments, Nick Richards is the top player to target in tournaments.
Through no fault of his own, Richards is getting squeezed out tonight as Jakob Poeltl and Andre Drummond both look like can’t-miss center plays at $6,300 and $7,000, respectfully. Though Poeltl and Drummond look good at price tags that are likely too cheap, Richards is in the best spot of them all, and he’s only $4,800 on DraftKings. Getting Charlotte exposure is key for tournaments tonight, and thankfully Stokastic’s Tools and Sims are also high on Richards. Richards simulates to be in 12.7% of the top 300 lineups, but only 10.48% of lineups are projected to roster him.
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