With football on pause until Thursday, Tuesday’s eight-game NBA slate is here to fill the void. Winning big in NBA DFS tournaments means finding ways to stand out, and one of the best strategies is targeting low-ownership, contrarian picks. By leveraging Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims, NBA DFS projections and NBA boom/bust probability data, we’ll uncover the top NBA DFS contrarian picks and strategies for DraftKings on Tuesday, Dec. 3.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks & Ownership Strategy Today
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PG: Luka Doncic (DAL) – $11,000
It’s always nice to be able to roster Luka Doncic at low ownership, and he’s currently the most leveraged player on DraftKings. After missing five games with a sprained right wrist, Doncic looked phenomenal in his return on Sunday, compiling 36 points, 13 assists, seven rebounds and three steals en route to 72.3 DraftKings points in 36 minutes. Simply put, only a few players across the NBA can match Doncic’s upside, so any time he’s coming in low owned, it’s worth taking a long look at him in tournaments.
As of this writing, Doncic is projected to be only 10.2% owned despite appearing in 30.3% of the top 300 lineups in Stokastic’s Sims according to ROI.
SF/PF: Aaron Wiggins (OKC) – $4,000
If an $11,000 Doncic is going to be a priority in tournaments, we’ll need some value plays, and Thunder forward Aaron Wiggins stands out as one of the top contrarian value plays on the slate. Wiggins is averaging 18.8 DraftKings points per game for a deep Thunder team, and while there’s a lot of volatility with his minutes, his role in the rotation is pretty secure with Alex Caruso and Chet Holmgren injured. Though Wiggins is unlikely to break a tournament slate on his own, his salary gives you a lot of roster flexibility.
At just $4,000 on DraftKings with dual position eligibility, Wiggins offers tremendous value, yet he’s flying under the radar with only 13.6% projected ownership for Friday’s slate. Despite the low roster rate, he stands out in the numbers: Wiggins is projected as optimal in 21.52% of simulations and appears in 31.3% of the top 300 lineups generated by the Sims.
C: Myles Turner (IND) – $6,700
Insert center against the Raptors here. All kidding aside, any center that faces the Raptors is going to get a boost, and Pacers big man Myles Turner gets that enviable matchup on Tuesday. Turner enters tonight putting up a solid 32.7 DraftKings points per game, and after he had back-to-back duds against the Grizzlies and Pistons, the field is backing off of him quite a bit on DraftKings.
At just $4,000 with power forward and center eligibility, Wiggins offers tremendous value, yet he’s flying under the radar with only 13.6% projected ownership for Friday’s slate. Despite the low roster rate, Wiggins is projected as optimal in 21.52% of simulations and appears in 31.3% of top-300 Sims lineups.
