Coming off a small five-game slate on Tuesday, the basketball gods bless us with a massive 11-game NBA slate on Wednesday. Winning big tournaments requires standing out from the crowd. One of the best ways to gain an edge is by including low-ownership, contrarian picks in your lineups. With the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims, NBA DFS projections and NBA boom/bust probability data, let’s dive into the top NBA DFS contrarian picks and strategy for DraftKings NBA DFS on Wednesday, Nov. 27.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks & Ownership Strategy Today
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PG: Tyrese Haliburton (IND) – $8,600
One of the breakout stars of the 2023-24 season, Tyrese Haliburton has struggled so far this season to match last year’s pace. Though Haliburton has still been productive, he comes into Wednesday night’s action averaging only 39.1 DraftKings points per game. When diving deeper into Haliburton’s numbers, it obvious that most his struggles have come on the road, and at home he’s basically the same player he was all of last season.
As of Wednesday, when Haliburton is playing at home he is averaging 22.5 points and 9.4 assists per game while shooting 46% from the field and 43% from beyond the arc. Compare those numbers to Haliburton’s 12.3 points, 8.3 assists and 32/23% shooting splits on the road, and it’s clear Haliburton has been much better from a DFS perspective at home.
Despite Haliburton’s clear upside in a match up with the Trail Blazers at home, the field isn’t prioritizing him at nearly the rate they should be on DraftKings. Haliburton is currently projected to be only 4.0% owned, but he’s showing up in 7.3% of the top 300 lineups in Stokastic’s Sims sorted by ROI.
PG/SF: Cody Martin (CHA) – $4,500
With 11 games in play and injuries rampant all over the NBA, there will likely be plenty of value players to choose from on Wednesday. As more and more value emerges throughout the day, players are naturally going to get squeezed out. One of those players who is already falling through the cracks on DraftKings is Hornets’ combo guard/forward Cody Martin.
While LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller have rightfully started to earn their respect in the DFS landscape, Martin still finds himself getting slept on on pretty much a daily basis. Though Martin’s production will rarely match that of Ball’s or Miller’s, his $4,500 price tag goes a long way from a roster construction perspective. Martin is slated to be in just 6.3% of DraftKings lineups, yet he boasts a 9.50% optimal rate for this slate and appears in 9.7% of the top 300 lineups.
PF/C: Evan Mobley (CLE) – $7,500
Cavaliers’ forward Evan Mobley has been one of the biggest influences on Cleveland’s 17-1 start, as the former third overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft has taken his game to new heights in his fourth season in the NBA. Mobley comes into Wednesday night averaging 17.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 2.4 stocks en route to 37.3 DraftKings points per game. Despite his consistent production, Mobley is currently getting forgotten about on DraftKings.
With so many games and so much value, the common build on DraftKings is likely to be stars and scrubs heavy. Players like Mobley at $7,500 don’t fit those type of builds, so it’s not all that surprising that he’s not getting much love on DraftKings. Stokastic’s Sims would say that’s a mistake, however, as Mobley is currently showing up in 12.3% of the top 300 lineups and he’s only projected to be 9.8% owned on DraftKings.
