NBA DFS returns with a bang on Tuesday night as the Knicks travel to Boston to face the defending champion Celtics in an Eastern Conference battle, and LeBron James and Lakers host Julius Randle and the new-look Timberwolves. In NBA DFS tournaments, standing out from the crowd is key to hitting those big wins. To stay ahead, adding a few unique picks that go against the NBA DFS ownership grain is essential. With the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims, projections and NBA boom/bust probability data, here we will discuss the top NBA DFS contrarian strategy and picks for the Tuesday, Oct. 22 slate.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks & Ownership Strategy Today
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PG/SG: Donte DiVincenzo (MIN)- $5,100
In typical NBA fashion, ownership is expected to be pretty concentrated on the first night of the season. With only two games on the docket, ownership on players like Miles McBride, Josh Hart and Naz Reid could approach the 60% mark, even in the largest tournaments in DraftKings‘ lobby. Though all of the players expected for high ownership are getting love for a reason, there’s more volatility than normal on the first night of the season, and embracing that volatility is crucial in GPPs. With so much of the field concentrated on McBride at one of the guard positions, other guards are falling through the cracks a bit, with newly minted Timberwolf Donte DiVincenzo standing out as the best of the bunch.
DiVincenzo is coming off one of his best seasons as a pro, averaging 29.2 DraftKings points per game and playing an integral role in the Knicks rotation. Despite his success, New York found DiVincenzo expendable with the addition of Mikal Bridges and shipped him off to the Timberwolves in the Karl-Anthony Towns trade. One man’s trash is another man’s treasure, and DiVincenzo figures to play a prominent role on Minnesota’s wing. While he’s not getting totally slept on DraftKings, DiVincenzo is only expected to be in 27.57% of lineups on DraftKings tonight yet he appears in 43% of the top 300 lineups in the latest NBA Sims run.
SG/SF: Dalton Knecht (LAL)- $3,900
Value players with upside are extremely hard to find tonight, so it’s a little surprising that Lakers rookie Dalton Knecht is only projected to be 5.39% owned on DraftKings tonight. Though it’s unlikely that Knecht will play a major role in Los Angeles’ rotation right away, his scoring ability alone should get him on the court for a Lakers team that has struggled offensively in the past. Knecht was phenomenal in both the preseason and Summer League, and it’s reasonable to think he’s already one of the first players off the Lakers bench this season.
Simply put, it’s hard to know exactly what new head coach JJ Redick is going to do with his rotation to start the season. It’s a guessing game for pretty much everyone right now, and if Knecht plays more than the industry is expecting, he could easily put up a tournament-winning score. As of this writing, Knecht is one of the highest-graded leverage plays on the slate, as his 9.79% optimal percentage is almost double his projected ownership.
C: Luke Kornet (BOS)- $3,900
With Kristaps Porzingis out of the mix for at least the next couple of months, minutes have opened up for the rest of Boston’s frontcourt. While we don’t know exactly how Joe Mazzulla is going to disperse those minutes, it’s likely that Luke Kornet will play a key role for the reigning champions in the early stages of the season. With veteran big man Al Horford unlikely to play big minutes early on, Kornet looks too cheap on DraftKings at $3,900. Stokastic’s NBA Boom/Bust Tool sees things similarly, as Kornet is projected to be optimal 12.89% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 9.94% of lineups expected to roster Kornet, he’s a solid differentiator in tournaments. Stokastic’s Sims also like Kornet, as he’s showing up in 15.0% of the top 300 lineups.
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