With football on a two-day hiatus, the NBA takes main stage and the basketball gods bless us with a four-game NBA slate on Tuesday . In NBA DFS tournaments, setting yourself apart from the competition is crucial for landing those big wins. To gain an edge, incorporating a few low-ownership, contrarian picks is essential. With the support of Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims, projections and NBA boom/bust probability data, we’ll break down the top NBA DFS contrarian strategy and picks for Tuesday, Oct. 29.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks & Ownership Strategy Today
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SG/SF: Cam Thomas (BKN)- $7,700
Since there are only four games in play and pretty much every player from Golden State is popping in Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections with Stephen Curry and De’Anthony Melton out, only a few players stand out from a leverage perspective. While this could change as lock approaches, it’s likely that there isn’t a ton of contrarian value tonight. That said, Cam Thomas is one of the few players that could fit the bill.
Thomas is averaging 45.5 DraftKings points per game while putting up a wild 65 shots in just three games. He has never met a shot he didn’t like, and when he gets hot he has the upside to completely break a slate at $7,700. Matched up with a Nuggets team that played an overtime game last night on the first half of a back-to-back, the Nets are only 4.5-point underdogs this evening, signaling that at least Vegas thinks this game is going to be competitive. As of this writing, Thomas appears in 12.3% of the 300 highest-ROI lineups. Ideally that number will get even higher when lock hits, but only 8.50% of lineups are projected to roster him.
PF: Kyle Anderson (GSW)- $3,800
The ripple effects of Curry being out are massive, and with Melton also out and Andrew Wiggins questionable, the Warriors rotation could get really weird tonight. Though players like Moses Moody, Buddy Hield, Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski are all projected for massive ownership on DraftKings, the field isn’t currently interested in rostering anyone else from Golden State. Kyle Anderson is one of those other Warriors.
While it’s likely that Wiggins’ questionable tag is playing a factor in Anderson’s low ownership, Stokastic’s NBA stat projections have Wiggins out, and Anderson is still projected to be only 6.56% owned on DraftKings. However, he is showing up in 14% of the top 300 lineups according to ROI.
C: John Collins (UTA)- $5,400
If you didn’t catch the Taylor Hendricks injury last night, do yourself a favor and keep it that way. Hendricks is expected to miss the remainder of the season after suffering a non-contact fractured right fibula and dislocated ankle in Monday’s 110-102 loss to the Mavericks. He was playing good minutes for the Jazz and is a player Utah is extremely high on. When one door closes another one opens, however, and Hendricks’ injury means other players in Utah’s frontcourt are going to have to shoulder the load and play more minutes. While it’s impossible to know exactly how head coach Will Hardy is going to allocate his minutes, John Collins is showing up a lot in Stokastic’s Sims.
Collins is averaging 28.2 DraftKings points while only playing 20.4 minutes per game. He has always been a bit of a DFS enigma in that his upside is always tantalizing but he too often fails to reach it. Collins’ Utah career has played out much like his time in Atlanta, and he’s a player that lives on the trade block. All that being said, Collins is in 31.3% of the 300 lineups with the highest ROI. The field isn’t getting to him at nearly this rate, however, as only 14.66% of lineups are projected to roster him.
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