We’re back to the madness on Friday with an eight-game NBA slate to get the weekend started. To win big tournaments, standing out from the competition is essential. Incorporating low-ownership, contrarian picks into your lineups is a proven way to gain an edge. By leveraging Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims, NBA DFS projections and NBA boom/bust probability data, let’s dive into the top contrarian picks and strategy for DraftKings NBA DFS on Friday, Nov. 22.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks & Ownership Strategy Today
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PG: James Harden (LAC) – $9,300
With Paul George in Philadelphia and Kawhi Leonard yet to play this season, James Harden seems to have found the fountain of youth in his second season in Los Angeles. The 35-year old former MVP is enjoying the best season he’s had in years, leading the Clippers to a surprising 9-7 record. Harden is averaging 48.1 DraftKings points per game, and despite his consistent production this season, he’s not getting nearly the love he deserves on DraftKings.
At the time of writing, James Harden appears in 27.7% of the top 300 lineups based on ROI, while only 16.6% of the field is projected to roster him.
SG/SF: Amen Thompson (HOU) – $5,100
On a slate with a lot of good leverage plays, Amen Thompson stands above them all. Thompson is currently grading out as the most positively leveraged player on the slate, and matched up with the Trail Blazers on Friday night, there’s a lot to like about him on DraftKings at only $5,100. In just his second season in the league, Thompson has already developed an identity as an elite athlete with tons of upside on both offense and defense. Thompson is currently playing 24.8 minutes per game for a deep Rockets team, and he’s been productive from a fantasy perspective, averaging 25.0 DraftKings points per game. Thompson is a true stat sheet stuffer, and the field is sleeping on him in a big way on DraftKings on Friday.
As of this writing, Thompson is projected to be in 20.96% of lineups on DraftKings, yet he projects to be optimal 33.12% of the time this slate plays out and appears in a whopping 46.3% of the top 300 lineups.
C: Nikola Vucevic (CHI) – $7,800
On yet another slate with value plays expected to open up throughout the day, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the mid-tier get phased out a bit by the time lock hits at 7 p.m. ET. Even before some of that expected value opens things up, Bulls center Nikola Vucevic is showing up as one of the most positively leveraged players on DraftKings. Vucevic isn’t a sexy roster by any means, but he comes into Friday night averaging a solid 41.5 DraftKings points per game, and he finds himself in a really good spot on Friday against a Hawks team that routinely gets cooked by opposing big men.
Vucevic has 22.3% exposure in top-300 lineups, but only 11.52% of lineups are expected to roster him.
