We’re back with a seven-game NBA slate that tips off at 7 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Remember that there is no late swap tonight on DraftKings, so build lineups accordingly. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include Stephen Curry and Jake LaRavia. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, March 1
NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick
Warriors-Raptors: Stephen Curry
Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 9.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,100
It’s always fun to be able to roster Stephen Curry at low ownership, and he’s the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $9,100. Coming off a big-time game last night in which he dropped 31 points and 11 rebounds in a win in New York against the Knicks, the field isn’t overly interested in running things back with him on DraftKings.
Although one could argue that Curry is a bit expensive for his median outcome, he comes with slate-breaking upside every time he steps on the court, and he has emerged as the top spend-up contrarian play on the board.
Curry is projected to be in just 4.5% of lineups on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 9.6%, it’s clear why Curry looks so good from a leverage perspective. He is undoubtedly an elite tournament piece at $9,100.
NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick
Cavaliers-Pistons: Ausar Thompson
Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 10.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,500
Ausar Thompson grades out extremely well in Stokastic’s tools, and he’s the top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $5,500. Thompson is becoming somewhat of a regular in this article, and, with the field continuing to sleep on him, he once again looks like one of the top differentiators at any price point on DraftKings.
Although Thompson’s rookie campaign has been filled with plenty of ups and downs, he is playing good ball right now for a Detroit team that looks a bit more competitive than they did earlier in the season.
With the majority of ownership on this slate going to players from the Memphis-Portland game, Thompson is falling through the cracks in a big way on DraftKings.
Thompson is projected to be in just 3.10% of lineups but has a 10.1% optimal percentage. While his floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to his inconsistencies, Thompson has massive upside at $5,500, and embracing that volatility is key in GPPs.
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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick
Trail Blazers-Grizzlies: Jake LaRavia
Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 7.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,500
Speaking of the Portland-Memphis game, Jake LaRavia is one player who is not getting a lot of love, and he stands out as the top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $3,500.
Memphis continues to deal with a litany of injuries, and things don’t get any better for them tonight with Jaren Jackson Jr. joining his injured friends on the Grizzlies sideline. Although Memphis is undoubtedly a mess right now, LaRavia should see a big boost in minutes with JJJ out.
It also makes sense for the Grizzlies to want to see what they have in LaRavia, considering they used first-round draft capital on him just two years ago. LaRavia was already getting decent rotation minutes, and he’s getting forgotten about as the rest of Memphis continues to pick up a ton of ownership on DraftKings.
Stokastic’s tools currently have LaRavia optimal 7.5% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 3.2% of lineups projected to roster him, LaRavia offers a ton of leverage.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Process Show with Josh Engleman on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5! Full details here.
