After a small four-game slate on Thursday, We’re back to the madness, with a 10-game NBA slate on Friday. In NBA DFS tournaments, setting yourself apart from the competition is crucial for landing those big wins. To gain an edge, incorporating a few low-ownership, contrarian picks is essential. With the support of Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims, projections and NBA boom/bust probability data, we’ll break down the top NBA DFS contrarian strategy and picks for Friday, Oct. 25.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks & Ownership Strategy Today
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PG/SF: Cody Martin (CHA)- $3,700
Injuries have already become a common theme just three days into the NBA season. From Joel Embiid not playing, to Dejounte Murray breaking his hand on opening night, the landscape of the NBA is ever changing for us DFS players. While Murray will likely be out a minimum of 4-to-6 weeks, the Hornets are dealing with the injury bug themselves, as second-year breakout candidate Brandon Miller suffered a left glute strain on opening night and will miss at least a week of action. Miller’s absence should mean bigger minutes for Cody Martin, and he’s falling through the cracks on DraftKings.
With value always at somewhat of a premium, it’s a bit surprising that Martin isn’t getting more love at his cheap $3,700 price tag on DraftKings. Stokastic’s Tools and Sims agree with my sentiment, as Martin is currently grading out as one of the top leverage plays on the slate. As of this writing, Martin has a 19.82% chance of being optimal on DraftKings but only 15.18% of lineups are projected to roster him. Stokastic’s Sims also are high on Martin, as he’s currently showing up in 26.3 of my top 300 lineups.
SF/PF: Josh Hart (NYK)- $5,700
Josh Hart was one of the biggest disappointments in DFS on opening night, and the field has seemingly soured on him already. The Knicks in general were outclassed on Tuesday, as the Celtics looked unbeatable. Going from playing the Celtics in Boston to a matchup at home against the Pacers should do wonders for New York’s confidence, and there’s a lot to like about a few of the Knicks’ starters tonight. That said, Hart is the player the field is sleeping on, and he’s emerging as one of the better contrarian plays on the board.
After coming in as one of the highest owned players on Tuesday, Hart is only projected to be 14.26% owned on DraftKings tonight. With an optimal percentage of 22.32%, it makes sense why Hart is grading out so well from a leverage perspective. Stokastic’s Sims tell a similar story, as Hart is currently showing up in 27.7% of my top 300 lineups.
PF: Scottie Barnes (TOR)- $8,800
If going to players who let us down on opening night is the theme of the night, then Raptors forward Scottie Barnes can make a strong case for being the poster child. Coming off a season in which Barnes averaged 44.9 DraftKings points per game, Barnes laid an egg against the Cavs on Wednesday, putting up a measly 23 DraftKings points in 26 minutes as the Raptors got boat raced by Cleveland. Much like Hart, however, Barnes finds himself in a much better spot tonight matched up with the Joel Embiid-less 76ers.
While there’s no denying Barnes’ volatility, embracing that volatility is crucial in GPP’s. Though Barnes might be correctly priced for his median projection, there’s a ton of meat on the bone at his $8,800 price tag in any game Toronto can keep competitive. That’s demonstrated in Stokastic’s Tools as Barnes currently has a 22.14% chance of being optimal on DraftKings. With only 13.04% of the field projected to allocate the funds for Barnes, he’s an elite spend up to contrarian play in tournaments. Barnes is also showing up in 33.7% of my top 300 lineups using Stokastic’s Sims.
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