Fresh off of Thanksgiving, the NBA offers us a five-game Friday night slate to whet our appetite. Winning big tournaments requires standing out from the crowd. One of the best ways to gain an edge is by including low-ownership, contrarian picks in your lineups. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims, NBA DFS projections and NBA boom/bust probability data, let’s dive into the top NBA DFS contrarian picks and strategy for DraftKings NBA DFS on Friday, Nov. 29.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks & Ownership Strategy Today
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Now, let’s dive back into our NBA DFS contrarian picks for today!
PG/SG: Keon Johnson (BRK) – $3,200
It’s not often that one of the top projected value plays is also the highest leveraged, but Keon Johnson fits that bill on Friday. When Brooklyn is healthy, Johnson is merely a tertiary option off the bench for a very deep Nets roster. Johnson is averaging only 14 minutes and 10.5 DraftKings points per game, but with Brooklyn dealing with a ton of injuries tonight, he is popping in both Stokastic’s Boom/Bust and Sims Tools.
Johnson has a ton of value at $3,200, but the field isn’t seeing it enough. Johnson is coming in 19.4% owned despite appearing in 77.3% of the top 300 lineups in Stokastic’s Sims according to ROI.
SG/SF: Dalton Knecht (LAL) – $4,500
One of the leading candidates for Rookie of the Year, Lakers guard/forward Dalton Knecht is falling through the cracks in a big way on DraftKings on Friday. Knecht comes into Friday averaging a solid 19.1 DraftKings points per game, and he’s beginning to see his role on the Lakers grow as the season continues. Knecht has started in five of the Lakers’ last seven games, averaging 18.7 points and 5.1 rebounds per game during that span.
Despite Knecht’s clear upside at $4,500 and dual eligibility on DraftKings, he’s only projected to be rostered on 16.5% of lineups on Friday. However, he is projecting as optimal 34.94% of the time this slate plays out and shows up in 46.7% of the top 300 lineups in the Sims.
PF/C: Al Horford (BOS) – $4,700
Longtime NBA stalwart Al Horford continues to be productive in what is now his 18th year in the NBA. On a loaded Celtics squad, Horford rolls into Friday’s action averaging 10.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.8 stocks per game. Even with Father Time ticking, Horford is still playing 27.8 minutes per game, and he finds himself in a dream spot on Friday matched up with the Bulls.
As of this writing, Horford is only projected to be 6.7% owned on DraftKings. Stokastic’s Sims would consider that number a mistake, however, as Horford is currently showing up in 13% of the top 300 lineups.
