After a small two-game slate on Tuesday, the NBA returns with a monster 10-game slate on Wednesday. In NBA DFS tournaments, setting yourself apart from the competition is crucial for landing those big wins. To gain an edge, incorporating a few low-ownership, contrarian picks is essential. With the support of Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims, projections and NBA boom/bust probability data, we’ll break down the top NBA DFS contrarian strategy and picks for Wednesday, Oct. 23.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks & Ownership Strategy Today
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PG/SG: Dejounte Murray (NO)- $8,300
Even on a 10-game slate, ownership is once again expected to be pretty concentrated on DraftKings. As of this writing, Immanuel Quickley, Collin Sexton, Guerschon Yabusele, Brandon Clarke and Nick Richards are projected to be in a combined 205.15% of lineups. While the ownership on all of them is warranted considering the lack of true value on this slate, that leaves plenty of opportunity to get different at either a guard spot or at center. New Pelicans guard Dejounte Murray is $1,000 more than Quickley, and as such, he’s falling through the cracks in a big way on DraftKings.
After Murray spent two years in Atlanta playing more off the ball alongside Trae Young, New Orleans jumped at the chance to get him this offseason, likely giving him the keys to the Pelicans offense. Murray is coming off a career-high 22.5 points per game, and he added 6.4 assists and 5.3 rebounds across 35.7 minutes for the Hawks. Though Murray had much better numbers when Young was out, he should have the ball in his hands a lot more as the Pelicans’ true point guard.
While it remains to be seen what kind of impact Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum and Zion Williamson have on Murray’s numbers, the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate it should be on DraftKings. Murray is currently simulating in 14% of the top 50 lineups by ROI, and only 6.59% of lineups are projected to roster him.
SG: Jordan Clarkson (UT)- $5,600
Value players with upside are hard to find tonight, so it’s a bit surprising that Jordan Clarkson isn’t getting more love at only $5,200. While Clarkson can certainly be volatile, embracing that volatility is key in GPPs, and Clarkson has tournament-winning upside every time he steps on the court. In 2022-23, he averaged 17.1 points, 5.0 assists and 3.4 rebounds en route to 30.2 DraftKings points per game, and he’s established himself as one of the best scoring guards off the bench in the NBA.
As of this writing, Clarkson is grading out as one of the top leverage plays on the entire slate. He is only projected to be in 5.18% of lineups on DraftKings despite appearing in 12% of the top 50 lineups. These numbers don’t even account for the ownership that Clarkson’s teammate Sexton is getting, making him look like that much better of a differentiator.
PF/C: Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)- $11,000
It’s always nice to roster Giannis Antetokounmpo at low ownership. After struggling through injuries and the arrival of Damian Lillard last season, Giannis should be extremely motivated as he looks to get the Bucks back to championship contention. Though Giannis is coming off a down year for his standards, he still averaged 59.3 DraftKings points per game, and on any given night he can completely break a slate. Matched up with the 76ers without Joel Embiid, Giannis has “‘”can’t win without him” upside tonight.
Despite Giannis’ lofty ceiling, the field is hesitant to break the bank on him in this spot. As of this writing, Giannis is only projected to be in 10.00% of lineups on DraftKings, yet he appears in 38% of top-50 lineups according to ROI.
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