We’re back with a five-game NBA slate on Tuesday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, including De’Aaron Fox and Shaedon Sharpe.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today
Contrarian Stud — De’Aaron Fox: Sacramento Kings-Detroit Pistons
De’Aaron Fox is the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $9,300. Coming into tonight’s action averaging 28.3 points, 6.0 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 2.0 stocks per game, Fox has established himself as one of the elite young point guards in the NBA. Although he’s putting up a solid 47.2 DraftKings points per game, Fox has been on a mini-slump lately and the field doesn’t trust him at $9,300.
Coming off arguably the worst game of his career, Fox finds himself in a dream ‘get right’ spot matched up with a Pistons backcourt that routinely gets cooked by opposing guards. Despite the matchup, Fox is projected to be only 6.70% owned on DraftKings with the field choosing to spend up elsewhere. With an optimal percentage of 10.40%, however, Fox is one of the best differentiators on the slate and easy to get over the field on in both large-field and small-field contests.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Shaedon Sharpe: Portland Trail Blazers-New York Knicks
Shaedon Sharpe is the highest graded leverage play on the slate and the clear top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $5,700. Although he’s seen his production dip a bit with the return of Anfernee Simons, Sharpe enters tonight’s contest averaging a respectable 29.5 DraftKings points per game. With his production declining, however, Sharpe has also seen his price drop on DraftKings and at only $5.7K there’s a lot to like about him in tournaments.
As of this writing Stokastic’s tools have Sharpe optimal 10.60% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. Compare that to his paltry 2.10% ownership projection and it makes sense why Sharpe looks so good from a leverage perspective. Although his minutes have been all over the place recently, embracing variance is vital in GPP’s and Sharpe is clearly worth taking some shots on in large-field tournaments.
Contrarian Value — Marcus Sasser: Sacramento Kings-Detroit Pistons
Marcus Sasser is DraftKings’ top contrarian value play at $3,500. Sasser has been up-and-down in his rookie campaign and while he certainly isn’t the safest play tonight, there’s plenty of meat on the bone at his cheap $3.5K price tag on DraftKings. With Cade Cunningham out for at least one week, a ton of minutes and usage have suddenly opened up in the Pistons backcourt. Although there’s no guarantee that Sasser plays a bunch of those minutes, Detroit is void of scoring without Cunningham and Sasser gives them a microwave type scorer off the bench.
While these numbers can change as we get news closer to lock, Sasser is projected to be optimal 12.20% of the time this slate happens on DraftKings. With only 7.10% of lineups expected to roster him, it’s obvious why Sasser stands out as the top contrarian value play on the slate. If I were only playing one lineup tonight I’m not sure I would want to take the risk of Sasser potentially only playing 10 minutes. In large-field contests, however, I’d want to be way over the field as his point-per-dollar upside is as high or higher than anyone else on the slate.
Looking for more NBA DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for Stokastic’s NBA DFS Premium Package for access to player projections, ownership projections and Stokastic’s state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.
