We’re back with a small five-game NBA slate on Tuesday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, which include Nikola Jokic and Brandon Ingram.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today
Contrarian Stud — Nikola Jokic: Denver Nuggets-Indiana Pacers
Nikola Jokic at low ownership? Don’t mind if I do. Jokic comes in averaging a slate-best 60.0 DraftKings points per game, and there’s a ton to like about him tonight in a dream spot against an Indiana frontcourt that routinely gets dominated by opposing big men.
Despite Jokic’s nightly production, the field isn’t prioritizing him at nearly the rate it should be. As of this writing, Jokic is projected to be in only 16.60% of lineups on DraftKings despite a whopping 21.20% optimal percentage. While there is definitely some opportunity cost in rostering Jokic at center and not one of the other spend-up options, he has obvious slate-breaking upside against Indiana, and it’s worth getting over the field on him in tournaments of all sizes.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Brandon Ingram: Utah Jazz-New Orleans Pelicans
Brandon Ingram is priced under $8,000 for the first time in 2024, and he comes into tonight’s action in good form with 111.8 DraftKings points combined over the past two games. Despite his price drop and recent production, the field is uninterested in getting to Ingram with other similar players in his price range to choose from.
While these numbers can definitely change as we get more news closer to lock, Ingram is currently projected to be optimal 15.30% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 9.00% of the field expected to roster him, Ingram is the third-highest-graded leverage play on the slate behind only T.J. McConnell and Precious Achiuwa, two players who will see their percentages change dramatically given injury news in Indiana and New York.
Contrarian Value — Peyton Watson: Denver Nuggets-Indiana Pacers
While no one would argue that Peyton Watson is elite, he’s in a great spot against Indiana, and his price tag can go a long way towards roster construction flexibility. Despite his cheap price point, however, the masses are totally ignoring Watson tonight, and he currently grades as the fifth-highest-leveraged play on the board.
Although he only projects for 17.04 DraftKings points, Watson is projected to be optimal 7.70% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. The field is clearly missing the boat on Watson, as he currently projects to be in just 2.90% of lineups, and his price tag opens up lots of doors to lineup construction.
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