Buckle up, folks, because today’s NBA DFS slate is serving up a whole buffet of value, star power and potential landmines. Whether you’re playing it safe with cash game staples or swinging for the fences with some high-risk, high-reward GPP plays, we have you covered. I’ll guide you through the best picks to fill your lineups and a few sneaky fliers for when you’re feeling a little spicy. Let’s dive in and break down today’s best picks for each contest type according to Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections and Sims tools.
NBA DFS Picks: Best Cash Game & GPP Picks for EVERY GAME
Hawks-Magic NBA DFS Picks
Atlanta plays at the second-fastest pace in the NBA, while Orlando is dead last, creating a push-and-pull dynamic where possessions could swing in either direction. The Hawks offensive inefficiency (23rd in Offensive Rating) will be tested against the Magic’s elite defense (3rd in Defensive Rating), making for a tough scoring environment. Orlando, on the other hand, has been a disaster efficiency-wise (29th in Offensive Rating, 30th in effective field goal percentage), but Atlanta’s mediocre defense (13th in Defensive Rating) might help keep them afloat. Given the game’s moderate total (221.5) and close spread (5.5), it’s a viable target, but the real value lies in leveraging ownership on key plays.
Best Cash Game Pick: Paolo Banchero
Best GPP Pick: Trae Young
Timberwolves-Cavaliers NBA DFS Picks
The Cavaliers hold several statistical advantages in this matchup, including pace, offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage. Minnesota, however, has a top-5 defense and may be able to slow Cleveland down to some degree, especially if Rudy Gobert can control the paint. The biggest DFS angle revolves around injury news, as Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley are both questionable; their absences would significantly boost usage for Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels. The Cavaliers offense is highly efficient, with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland operating at a high level, but with a 9.5-point spread, there’s some risk of a blowout limiting minutes in the fourth quarter. This game presents strong mid-range DFS options, with Reid and Jarrett Allen offering solid value at their price points.
Best Cash Game Pick: Jarrett Allen
Best GPP Pick: Naz Reid
Kings-Mavericks NBA DFS Picks
Dallas has a slight edge in both offensive and defensive efficiency, but Sacramento’s faster pace could help elevate the fantasy upside for both sides. The Mavericks hold a clear advantage in free-throw rate, which could lead to additional scoring opportunities, while the Kings have the superior rim finishing. Domantas Sabonis remains a high-floor cash game play, while Kyrie Irving’s elite usage and lower ownership make him an appealing GPP option, especially with potential extra minutes in a close game. The absence of major injury-driven usage changes means prioritizing ceiling plays and efficient scorers in tournament lineups.
Best Cash Game Pick: Domantas Sabonis
Best GPP Pick: Kyrie Irving
Celtics-Heat NBA DFS Picks
The Celtics have a clear offensive advantage, ranking second in Offensive Rating compared to Miami’s 22nd, and they also hold edges in effective field goal percentage and Defensive Rating. While both teams play at a slow pace, Boston’s efficiency should allow it to control the game, especially if Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are available. Miami’s offense struggles at the rim, and with Boston’s ability to defend well in the halfcourt, the Heat may rely heavily on 3-point shooting to stay competitive. With no major mismatches but Boston having a strong net rating advantage, DFS value will likely come from mid-tier plays, especially considering the injury uncertainty surrounding Tatum and Brown. Given the game environment, Kristaps Porzingis and Bam Adebayo are solid plays, while Tyler Herro remains a high-upside GPP option.
Best Cash Game Pick: Kristaps Porzingis
Best GPP Pick: Tyler Herro
If you’re interested in giving NBA DFS Showdown a try, I recommend using Stokastic’s Single Lineup Simulator. This tool provides valuable insights for individual lineups, showing you the likelihood of them cashing, finishing in the top 10%, or winning, along with the simulated ROI. Here’s a lineup simulation for a Celtics-Heat Showdown:
Pelicans-Thunder NBA DFS Picks
The Thunder are heavy favorites, having the league’s top defense against a Pelicans squad ranking near the bottom in offensive efficiency. Oklahoma City’s ability to control possessions with the lowest turnover rate in the NBA should create high-quality offensive opportunities, especially against a Pelicans defense ranked 28th in Defensive Rating. With New Orleans also struggling to defend at the rim and from midrange, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams should find efficient scoring opportunities. The high total of 236 suggests strong DFS viability, but the 16-point spread introduces significant blowout risk, making late-swap considerations crucial. In a game environment that favors Oklahoma City domination, prioritizing minutes security for cash games and lower-owned upside plays for GPPs is key.
Best Cash Game Pick: Jalen Williams
Best GPP Pick: Isaiah Hartenstein
Spurs-Wizards NBA DFS Picks
San Antonio holds clear offensive and defensive advantages, ranking 16th in Offensive Rating against Washington’s league-worst defense, while the Wizards’ fast pace (4th) creates extra possessions. The game environment favors key Spurs options, particularly Victor Wembanyama, who has a strong projection but comes with ownership leverage. Jordan Poole stands out for Washington, as his high usage and minutes in a fast-paced game make him a viable play despite inefficiency concerns. While chalkier plays exist, leveraging lower-owned tournament pivots like De’Aaron Fox or Devin Vassell could provide an edge in GPPs.
Best Cash Game Pick: Jordan Poole
Best GPP Pick: Victor Wembanyama
Warriors-Bucks NBA DFS Picks
Milwaukee’s pace advantage and elite shooting efficiency stand out against Golden State’s strong defensive rebounding. The Bucks’ high-volume 3-point shooting (42.9% frequency, 38.8% accuracy) should test the Warriors perimeter defense, which ranks 13th in opponent 3-point percentage. Golden State’s edge on the offensive glass (26.9% offensive rebound percentage, 6th) could create second-chance opportunities, but their struggles at the free-throw line (28th) may limit efficiency. The biggest DFS question revolves around Stephen Curry’s status — his absence would elevate Brandin Podziemski and Draymond Green as value plays. With Giannis Antetokounmpo out, Damian Lillard should see increased usage, making him a top-tier option, while Bobby Portis benefits from extended minutes and strong per-minute production.
Best Cash Game Pick: Bobby Portis
Best GPP Pick: Brook Lopez
Trail Blazers-Nuggets NBA DFS Picks
The Denver Nuggets hold a clear advantage over the Portland Trail Blazers in nearly every key metric, making this a potentially lopsided matchup. Denver ranks second in effective field goal percentage and third in offensive rating, while Portland sits near the bottom of the league in both categories. Nikola Jokic is positioned for a dominant performance against a porous Blazers defense that ranks 22nd in efficiency and struggles at the rim. Portland’s best hope for keeping the game competitive lies in Anfernee Simons and Deandre Ayton generating offense, though a potential Jerami Grant absence would further weaken their scoring depth. With Denver playing at a faster pace and having a significant shooting edge, there’s increased blowout risk, making game script considerations crucial for DFS lineup construction.
Best Cash Game Pick: Nikola Jokic
Best GPP Pick: Aaron Gordon
Jazz-Lakers NBA DFS Picks
The Jazz-Lakers game presents a strong DFS environment due to Utah’s fast pace and poor defense, but the significant spread raises blowout concerns. The Lakers hold clear advantages in efficiency, particularly with a top-tier free-throw rate and superior turnover control against Utah’s league-worst turnover rate. Utah’s one edge comes on the offensive glass, which could create second-chance opportunities for their frontcourt. With LeBron James and Luka Doncic both questionable, monitoring injury news is crucial, as potential absences would open up significant value plays. The game’s moderate pace tempers expectations slightly, but the Lakers’ efficiency and Utah’s defensive struggles still make this a viable DFS target.
Best GPP Pick: Jordan Clarkson
