Happy Friday! Josh Engleman here to break down everything you need to know about tonight’s NBA DFS slate, including a nugget on Tobias Harris heading into this evening. Let’s dive right into my NBA DFS advice for today, Friday, March 8.
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NBA DFS Advice Today: Tobias Harris <3
NOP (-8.5) @ PHI (222.0) | NBA DFS Advice Today
The New Orleans Pelicans are 8 1/2 point favorites in Philadelphia, taking on the Sixers. The game has a 222 total. This game tips off at 7 PM ET. Everyone appears to be healthy for the Pelicans. On the Philadelphia 76ers side, Tyrese Maxey is still out, as is De’Anthony Melton, and Joel Embiid.
For the Pelicans, there aren’t many options on the DFS side. Zion Williamson is $8100. He’s power forward only and looks like the best option from New Orleans. However, I don’t anticipate having anyone from the Pelicans as a primary play without any news.
For the 76ers, there are two plays that immediately jump out to me. The first is Tobias Harris; he’s $7700, small forward/power forward eligibility. He’s a completely different player with Maxey and Embiid off the floor: 25% usage, 20% assist rate, 1.15 fantasy points per minute in this matchup. The other play that I’m looking at is Kyle Lowry; he’s $5700, point guard only, gets a little bit of a bump to his rates as well. 18% usage, 28% assist rate, .95 fantasy points per minute. Other than these two guys, I don’t anticipate having much from the 76ers.
CHA (+3.0) @ WAS (225.5)
The Charlotte Hornets are three-point underdogs in Washington, taking on the Wizards. The game has a 225 1/2 point total. We’re waiting on the news for Tre Mann, who is questionable with a left groin strain. That could have some major impact on the value of the Charlotte Hornets. For the Wizards, Marvin Bagley is out once again, and Landry Shamet has a questionable tag for left calf soreness.
The Hornets have a few options that look good. That tends to happen when you face the number one team in pace and the worst defense in the league. Brandon Miller leads the charge for me, $7000, shooting guard/small forward eligible, 1.05 fantasy points per minute in this matchup, 25% usage, 14% assist rate, playing 35 to 36 minutes each night. But don’t sleep on Miles Bridges, Nick Richards, Vasilije Micic, and potentially others if the Tre Mann news goes the wrong way.
Washington is similarly in a great spot. Although the Charlotte Hornets do play rather slow, they’re also a terrible defense, although they have been better since the trade deadline. The standout option for Washington is Kyle Kuzma, $7800, power forward/center eligibility, 1.25 DraftKings points per minute, close to 30% usage, 18% assist rate, 12% rebounding rate.
But it doesn’t just stop there. Deni Avdija is $6700, small forward only, 1.1 DraftKings points per minute. Jordan Poole has seen his stock rise, 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past 30 days, minutes have been firm around 30 per game.
Tyus Jones has seen an increase to his assist rate since Jordan Poole moved to the bench. His assist rate is just north of 40%, which is staggering. Then Richaun Holmes is a $3700 center only option; with no Marvin Bagley, should see somewhere in the 20 to 24 minute range, will be a solid point per dollar play for the Wizards.
MIN (-1.0) @ CLE (208.0)
The Minnesota Timberwolves are one-point favorites in Cleveland, taking on the Cavaliers. This game has a 208 point total. Yesterday was the first game Minnesota played without Karl-Anthony Towns after his torn meniscus diagnosis. Anthony Edwards had a massive game.
He’s here today, $9000 salary, shooting guard/small forward eligible, tough spot against Cleveland. They play slow; they lean defensively. However, I’m still happy to get to a little bit of Edwards as he looks like the best option for Minnesota. Rudy Gobert is playing 36+ minutes per night; he’s $7700 and center only looks like a solid play, 1.05 fantasy points per minute in this matchup. We had great value for Kyle Anderson yesterday. He disappointed; his price is now up to $5200, and he’ll be significantly less interesting than he was yesterday. That tends to mean he’ll probably play well now that fewer people own him.
Even though the matchup for Cleveland is terrible, taking on the number one defense in the league, the Cavs are without Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Max Strus, which is creating quite a bit of value across the board. My two main priorities are Darius Garland, a $7600 point guard, 29% usage rate, 35% assist rate with those other guys out, and then Jarrett Allen, $7900 center only, 1.2 DraftKings points per minute, 20% usage, 15% assist rate, 20% rebounding rate.
But it doesn’t stop there. Caris LeVert is playing roughly 30 minutes a night; he’s $6100, shooting guard/small forward eligible, 1.1 fantasy points per minute with a large assist rate bump in the absence of Mitchell. I’m still very happy to get to someone like Isaac Okoro, $4700, small forward/power forward eligible, playing north of 30 minutes with all of these guys out. Not the best permanent guy in the world, but the minutes are there for him. Then I think that Dean Wade and George Niang are both viable value punt plays.
ATL (-3.0) @ MEM (216.0) | NBA DFS Advice Today
The Atlanta Hawks are three-point favorites in Memphis, taking on the Grizzlies. This game has a 216 point total. Atlanta is going to be without Jalen Johnson in this game, which really changes some of the rates for the remaining players, particularly with no Trae Young.
Dejounte Murray is expensive at $9200, is point guard only, plays 36 minutes at a minimum if this game is competitive, 1.3 DraftKings points per minute, 29% usage, 39% assist rate, both of those numbers are increased with the absence of Jalen Johnson. Similarly, Saddiq Bey, likely to start and play 36 minutes or more, $5700, small forward/power forward eligible, .85 DraftKings points per minute, and then De’Andre Hunter should see an increased role with the absence of Jalen Johnson. Hunter is $5000, small forward/power forward eligible, .9 DraftKings points per minute.
For Memphis, Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable with left knee soreness while Luke Kennard is doubtful with left knee soreness. My favorite play on the entire slate is Jaren Jackson Jr., $8200, power forward/center, with a 33% usage rate when none of the real players are around, 18% assist rate, 10% rebounding rate, and big steal and block rates. He projects as my top option on the day, and there’s not much that could change for Memphis that would remove that rank.
ORL (+1.0) @ NYK (207.0) | NBA DFS Advice Today
The Orlando Magic are one-point underdogs in New York, taking on the Knicks. This game has a 207-point total. We’re waiting on the status of Wendell Carter Jr., who is questionable with right knee soreness. If Carter Jr. happens to be out, it’s likely that Goga Bitadze would get the spot start.
Orlando is taking on the slowest team in the league, and being 27th in pace themselves, it’s a terrible spot. This matchup is likely the least interesting game on today’s slate, and I don’t have a single Orlando Magic player that I would recommend at this time.
For the Knicks, we’re waiting on a questionable tag for Jalen Brunson, which will change the entire outlook of the Knicks. If Jalen Brunson plays, he’s one of two viable options for the Knicks. Brunson is $9500, point guard only, averaging roughly 1.25 DraftKings points per minute with a 34% usage and 36% assist rate.
The other option for New York would be Donte DiVincenzo at $7800, playing roughly 38 minutes. He’s shooting guard/small forward eligible, with a projection of just north of 20 real points. If you want to take a chance on Josh Hart playing 42 minutes or more, he’s up to $8000. He’s fine, but not a priority.
MIA (+8.5) @ OKC (224.0)
The Miami Heat are 8 1/2-point underdogs in Oklahoma City, taking on the Thunder. This game has a 224-point total. Miami is on a back-to-back, so we currently don’t know the status of all of their players. It’s possible someone could sit out and create more value.
As I see it, Bam Adebayo is your best Miami Heat option. He’s an $8300 center, with 1.2 DraftKings points per minute, 26% usage, 18% assist rate, and 17% rebounding rate. I would have no issue rostering Caleb Martin at $4500, Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier, or Duncan Robinson, but Bam Adebayo would be my first option.
I generally find the Oklahoma City Thunder difficult to get to as their prices are usually relatively stable, especially in a matchup here against Miami, the 28th-ranked team in pace. However, Chet Holmgren at $7400, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at $10,500, and Josh Giddey, who’s been playing increased minutes lately, at $5100, are all options.
They are point guard/shooting guard eligible and look very similar relative to salary, and all three look better than anything we’ve seen on the Miami side of this game. I have no issue with Lu Dort or Jalen Williams, but the first three names I mentioned are the priorities coming from Oklahoma City.
Nonetheless, hopefully you found our NBA DFS Advice Today column helpful, including our nugget on Tobias Harris.
