Josh Engleman here to break down everything you need to know about tonight’s NBA DFS slate, including a nugget on Miles Bridges heading into this evening. Let’s dive right into my NBA DFS advice for today, Friday, March 15.
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NBA DFS Advice Today: Miles Bridges, Yes Please!
PHX (-9.0) @ CHA (217.5) | NBA DFS Advice Today
The Phoenix Suns are nine-point favorites in Charlotte, taking on the Hornets. The game has a 217.5 point total and tips off at 7 p.m.
The Phoenix Suns are on a back-to-back, which means we don’t have an injury report yet. Eric Gordon was out yesterday after being questionable. It’s possible he is back. Whether he is back or not, I don’t see a ton of value coming out of Phoenix. My focus would be on their big three, Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant, although none of those three guys look like a priority.
While Charlotte’s defense isn’t great, they play at a relatively neutral pace. It’s a good matchup against Charlotte, but not an elite one. If you want to play Jusuf Nurkic, he would be a GPP option for me.
For the Hornets, it’s basically the same situation, just that the three plays look slightly better than they do for Phoenix. The Hornets are still without Seth Curry, Cody Martin, and Bryce McGowans. The two best plays for me from Charlotte are $8,800 Miles Bridges, who’s playing around 39 minutes a night, 1.05 to 1.1 DraftKings points per minute. Nick Richards and Brandon Miller are also viable coming from Charlotte. I do like all three Hornets more than I like any of the guys from Phoenix
MIA (-7.0) @ DET (213.5) | NBA DFS Advice Today
The Miami Heat are seven-point favorites in Detroit, taking on the Pistons. This game has a 213.5 point total, which is the lowest on today’s slate. It tips off at 7 p.m.
Caleb Martin is available. Bam Adebayo is probable. Tyler Herro, Kevin Love, and Josh Richardson are still out. Miami has a few options that look good. I would start with Jimmy Butler, $8,400 in small forward only. He’s a 1.2 DraftKings point per minute guy in a great matchup, bad Detroit defense, and the Pistons play at the fifth-fastest pace.
This is a giant pace-up matchup for the Heat. And for Butler, the fact that he is at small forward helps to fill the most difficult position that we have. I have no issue paying up for an $8,200 Bam Adebayo. He’s also in the 1.15 to 1.2 fantasy point per minute range. But I also see Terry Rozier, Duncan Robinson, and Caleb Martin as reasonable options for today. And Jaime Jaquez is a solid option in GPPs.
For Detroit, I don’t see a lot of value. Simone Fontecchio, a $5,300 small forward/power forward eligible player, should be in the starting lineup once again with Asuar Thompson out. Quentin Grimes is also out for the Pistons. But the biggest piece of news will be the status of Cade Cunningham, who is questionable with left knee injury management. He does look like the best option from the Pistons. He’s an $8,500 point guard. It is a difficult matchup against Miami, who plays at the second slowest pace.
But he is the guy that I would want the most from the Pistons if he plays. If Cade Cunningham happens to be out, you will be creating quite a bit of additional value for Marcus Sasser, who’s only $3,700. And likely you would see a sizable usage bump to Jaden Ivey.
ORL (-7.0) @ TOR (216.0) | NBA DFS Advice Today
The Orlando Magic are seven-point favorites in Toronto, taking on the Raptors. This game has a 216-point total and tips off at 7:30.
There are a few options that look similar for Orlando. I would start by wanting to get to their two best players, Franz Wagner, a $7,200 small forward, and Paolo Banchero, an $8,900 power forward. In this spot against the horrific Toronto Raptors defense, Banchero projects around 1.25 DraftKings points per minute, while Franz Wagner is around 1.1, even though he’s been a bit off lately, coming in at just 0.95 fantasy points per minute over the past 30 days.
I think Cole Anthony could be an interesting GPP value, but is in no way a priority. Wendell Carter Jr. is a reasonable enough option at center, but also not a priority. Jalen Suggs, Jon Isaac, and Mo Wagner can all be used sparingly.
Meanwhile, Toronto is still without Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl. RJ Barrett is out for personal reasons following the death of his younger brother. And Gary Trent is questionable. Trent missed the most recent game. That will create a bit of value if Trent happens to be out again. My first option in this spot would be Immanuel Quickley, an $8,600 point guard.
I think if Trent is able to play, he looks solid at $5,700. And you can make a case for Kelly Olynyk, although the $7,000 price tag and center only eligibility is a bit problematic. He has, however, been a 1.12 GPP guy over the past 30 days.
LAC (+6.5) @ NOP (215.5)
The Los Angeles Clippers are six and a half point underdogs in New Orleans, taking on the Pelicans, with a 215.5 point total, tipping off at 8 p.m.
This is a very difficult team to break down at this moment. The Clippers are on a back-to-back, yesterday Kawhi Leonard was questionable. I think it would be very reasonable for him to not play the back-to-back due to his back spasms, although he was able to play in full last night. James Harden, on the other hand, was questionable yesterday and is uncertain to play today.
Kawhi would be the guy that I have my eye on from the Clippers if everybody is in. If one or both of those men happen to miss this game, you would likely see a sizable boost to Bones Hyland, who had a massive game yesterday in place of James Harden. Paul George would see a usage and assist rate bump with one or both of those guys off the floor and we may create additional value elsewhere. But as of right now, we need to get the updated injury report to understand the Clippers’ status.
The Pelicans are at full strength, however, as they normally look, I’d be willing to roster just about anyone from the Pelicans, but no one as a priority. I think Zion Williamson looks like the best option. I would have no issue getting to a $6400 CJ McCollum, who’s been scoring one fantasy point per minute over the past 30 days. But you can make a case to have small amounts of everybody that plays: Herb Jones, Jose Alvarado, Larry Nance, Trey Murphy, Brandon Ingram.
It’s a team whose rotation does not really deviate, and whose prices have been stable for a while now.
DEN (-9.5) @ SAS (221.5)
The Denver Nuggets are 9.5 point favorites in San Antonio, taking on the Spurs. This game has a 221.5 point total and tips off at 8:30 p.m.
This is an exceptional matchup for Denver as they play at the 27th fastest pace, whereas San Antonio is the fastest team in the league and the 22nd ranked defense. However, since Denver’s pricing is relatively stable for their five starters, I have two interesting options for the Nuggets. But they look better than most of the plays on today’s slate.
I would be happy to pay up for the $11,800 center, Nikola Jokic. 1.7 DraftKings points per minute over the past 30 days and obviously an exceptional talent. Not a lot of other pay-up options on today’s slate, so finding the value to get to Jokic will be key. I’m also more than happy to get to an $8,100 point guard, Jamal Murray. He’s been playing at a 1.25 fantasy point per minute rate over the past 30 days. 27% usage rate, 29% assist rate. After that, you can use Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Aaron Gordon as lineup filler.
San Antonio is also at full strength. Keldon Johnson should be back for this game. And the Spurs have the opposite of Denver, a horrific matchup. Denver is right around 10th in defensive rating, 27th in pace. This is a large pace-down spot for San Antonio. My priorities here are $10,500 Victor Wembanyama, who’s a much crazier per-minute guy. 1.87 fantasy points per minute over the past 30 days. Certainly looks like a Nikola Jokic alternative, but should be expected to play quite a few minutes less than Jokic.
The only other guy that I have my eye on for San Antonio is $7,400 Devin Vassell. A fantasy point per minute guy in this spot. If this game is competitive, my assumption is that Vassell and Wembanyama have a lot to do with it.
ATL (-2.5) @ UTA (222.5)
In Utah, the Atlanta Hawks are 2.5 point favorites taking on the Jazz. This game has a 222.5 point total and tips off at 9:30 pm.
Atlanta is a tricky team to project as Bogdan Bogdanovic and Jalen Johnson are both questionable. Bogdanovic is questionable with an illness, while Jalen Johnson is working his way back from a right ankle sprain. The Hawks continue to be without Trae Young, Onyeka Okongwu, and now Saddiq Bey, who was out for the season with a torn ACL.
If Atlanta is at full strength, $9,500 Dejounte Murray still looks like the best option from the Hawks. This is a bit of a pace-up spot for Atlanta.
The Utah Jazz rank 29th in defensive rating, and Murray is playing close to 40 minutes each night, 1.3 DraftKings points per minute over the past 30 days. If Jalen Johnson happens to be back, he is $7,600 power forward/center eligible and a 1.1 DK point per minute guy. He along with Murray are the two primary values, however, if Jalen Johnson and/or Bogdan Bogdanovic are out, that will completely change the scope for the Atlanta Hawks and may create more value for some of the lesser-known pieces.
Utah will be once again without Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson will be missing this game with a right groin strain, and Kris Dunn is out for rest. Also, it’s possible Taylor Hendricks is back. Assuming Hendricks is back, there is quite a bit of value for Utah because of the amount of guys that are missing in this matchup. Not to mention, Utah also sees the 28th rank defense in Atlanta and the #7 team in pace. Potential for a lot of fantasy scoring in this spot.
Collin Sexton is my priority, a $7,300 shooting guard who certainly sees a rise in usage and assist rate with no Markkanen and Clarkson around, 1.2 fantasy points per minute for Sexton. One of my main priorities on this entire slate, as is $6,600 Keyonte George who should be a little over a fantasy point per minute in this matchup and has the full keys to the castle given the fact that Kris Dunn is out. I wouldn’t stop there, $7,100 power forward John Collins stands out to me, he’s playing north of 30 minutes and has the revenge narrative going for him in this spot.
If we need value since Kris Dunn is out, unfortunately, we’ll be looking at Talen Horton-Tucker. He’s $3,900 shooting guard/small forward eligible and a fantasy point per minute. We’re going to need him to play some additional minutes with the guys that are out, at which point he will become one of the best pay-down options on today’s slate.
Hopefully you found our NBA DFS Advice Today column helpful, including our nugget on Miles Bridges.
