After a phenomenal showing at Bristol, we did okay at Kansas. I correctly called out the value the Spire Motorsports drivers had, but I went with the wrong one (Justin Haley) instead of Zane Smith, who got a top-10 on a $5,400 price tag. Christopher Bell and Ty Gibbs both scored top-10s as well but didn’t rack up the dominator points we were looking for. We’re on to Talladega. Without further ado, let’s dive into our top NASCAR DFS picks for the 2024 YellaWood 500 at Talladega, including Brad Keselowski.
NASCAR DFS Picks: Top Drivers for the YellaWood 500 | Talladega
YellaWood 500 NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy | Talladega Superspeedway
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Superspeedways, also known as drafting tracks (and formerly known as restrictor plate races), feature a ton of variance. Of the two main NASCAR stacking strategies — stacking the front and hoping for nothing to happen or stacking the back and hoping for lots to happen, the latter is the clear choice for superspeedways.
Of the five events on superspeedways this season, four were won by drivers starting outside the top 10 (and outside the top 15). The lone driver to win from starting inside the top 10 was Joey Logano at Atlanta. The polesitter (Michael McDowell four times, including once again this weekend) finished outside the top 30 three times.
There are several really good superspeedways starting near the front of the field this weekend, which makes things tough. There is some appeal in adding some of them to your lineup in hopes of getting contrarian, since much of the field will be stacking the back, and we’ll discuss the drivers I feel comfortable about taking a risk on.
One last piece of advice: Don’t be afraid to leave some salary on the table this week.
Justin Haley & Spire Motorsports
We were a week early to Justin Haley ($6,800) last week. He was running quite well while making his debut in the No. 7 Chevrolet, but he got in an accident due to not being on the same page with his spotter. That’s the kind of mistake that only happens once. They’ll be on the same page this week, and that’s crucial at a drafting track.
Haley will start this race in 35th, which gives him a ton of potential place differential points. Such a bad starting position may be a cause for concern at different tracks (or for different drivers), but it’s a massive selling point here. It also isn’t a concern with Haley, who is a proven winner at superspeedways and has dominated at them in Xfinity.
Haley and his teammates, Carson Hocevar ($6,100) and Zane Smith ($5,500) will all start outside the top 30. They’ll be able to work together in the draft almost right away, and I expect to see them cut their way through the field steadily throughout Sunday’s race. In cash games, none of these guys will sink your lineup with negative place differential points.
Brad Keselowski
There are a few drivers starting near the front that I’m willing to take my chances on, but none stand out more than Brad Keselowski. Keselowski won his first-ever Cup Series race here back in 2009. Since then, he has won here five more times. Keselowski’s six Talladega wins are the most of all active drivers. He trails the all-time leader, Dale Earnhardt Sr., by four.
Keselowski will start in 13th this Sunday, so while he isn’t a candidate for opening lap dominator points, he could easily take over P1 before the end of the first stage. He has led laps in the last three Talladega races despite starting in 20th, fifth and 22nd. The handful of dominator points we should get from Keselowski won’t make or break your lineup, but they’re points all the same.
When it comes to actually finishing the race, Keselowski’s aggressive style puts him at risk of landing on the wrong side of accident variance. While he has six wins here, he also has five DNFs. That may sound like a big number, but of the four drivers with at least five Talladega wins, only Keselowski has more wins than DNFs. Let’s hope he keeps that record alive on Sunday.
