After a solid but not great showing at the Charlotte ROVAL (we targeted A.J. Allmendinger, Shane Van Gisbergen and Zane Smith), we’re on to Las Vegas. The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs were shaken up after last week’s race by the disqualification of Alex Bowman, which thrusts Joey Logano back into the hunt for his third championship (and third even-year title in a row). Without further ado, let’s dive into our top NASCAR DFS picks for the 2024 South Point 400 at Las Vegas, including Christopher Bell.
NASCAR DFS Picks: Top Drivers for the South Point 400 | Las Vegas
South Point 400 NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy | Las Vegas Motor Speedway
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Generally, the two NASCAR DFS strategies are to either stack the front (and hope nothing changes) or stack the back (and hope a lot changes). The former strategy is especially effective at short tracks, where more dominator points are available; the latter strategy is more effective at superspeedway tracks, where dominator points aren’t quite as important. Unfortunately, this venue isn’t as clear-cut as those are.
Intermediate tracks like Las Vegas Motor Speedway fit somewhere in between. While there are fewer dominator points available than at a short track, cars that start near the front of the field have historically been the most successful at venues like this one. When it comes to Las Vegas, all but one of the five winners in the NextGen era started inside the top five. The lone exception was Alex Bowman in the first-ever race here in the new car.
It’s worth noting that the last three Las Vegas winners (so every winner since 2023) fit two exact criteria. They (1) drove for Hendrick Motorsports and (2) started in P2 behind a driver from an opposing manufacturer. William Byron scored one of those wins while Kyle Larson scored the other two. In those wins, Byron and Larson went for 100-plus laps led, making them clearly optimal drivers at the end of each race.
Relatedly, the polesitter has almost always fared well here. Aside from the 2023 spring race at which polesitter Joey Logano crashed out early, no polesitter has finished outside of the top 10. In addition, every polesitter, including Logano in that event, led multiple laps, securing at least some dominator points to offset a bit of negative place differential.
The Front Row
This probably won’t prove to be that contrarian, but I like both drivers who will start on the front row. Christopher Bell ($10,300) and Tyler Reddick ($10,000) are two of the priciest drivers on the board, but they’re still at a discount relative to William Byron ($10,800) and Kyle Larson ($11,500), and they provide us with a potential pathway to differentiation: fading Hendrick.
While Hendrick has run the show at Vegas lately, the team looked less impressive at other high-speed intermediate tracks similar to Vegas down the stretch. At Kansas a few weeks ago, Christopher Bell led the most laps while Ross Chastain won the race. At Michigan in August, Tyler Reddick won after starting in P2 while only one Hendrick driver finished inside the top 10.
Zooming out, we’ve seen six races on high-speed intermediates this year (Las Vegas 1, Texas, Kansas 1, Charlotte, Michigan and Kansas 2). After winning the first of those three races, Hendrick hasn’t revisited victory lane. Other teams seem to have caught up, minimizing Hendrick’s advantage and opening up this correlation fade as a viable strategy. Leave the pricy Hendrick drivers out of your lineup while targeting Toyotas and hope the field doesn’t do the same.
Harrison Burton
This may seem a bit strange to you, but we need at least one spend-down option to fit five pricier drivers into our lineups, and no one stands out more than Harrison Burton ($5,700) when we scroll down the board. He’ll start in P31, which opens up plenty of possible position differential points. It’ll just be a question of whether he can execute.
Now, it’s fair to ask whether Burton can actually execute. He finished 30th here in the spring and has a career-low average finish of 26.1 so far this season. However, Burton has historically been a bit better than that here in Sin City, recording two top-20s and improving upon his starting position in three of five starts.
The other reason it’s easier to trust Burton than other spend-down options is simply his equipment. High-speed intermediates tend to reward drivers who pilot good equipment more than other venues, largely due to the high top speeds and lessened significance of drafting.
Burton’s No. 21 Ford is certainly the worst of the four cars fielded out of the Team Penske stable, but it’s still a Team Penske car, which is more than any other driver in this price range can say. Lock him in as your spend-down option and try to find as much value in the middle of the board as you can.
