Last week’s NASCAR DFS picks for Watkins Glen didn’t age as well as they should’ve. Early trouble cost Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick big time, and while Larson still ended up on the winning lineup, it was Chris Buescher and Shane Van Gisbergen who looked the best. I still made money on last week’s race because I gave out Chris Buescher at +2500 via my Tails By OddsShopper page, but I want to rebound on DFS. Without further ado, let’s dive into our top NASCAR DFS picks for the 2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol, including Ryan Blaney.
NASCAR DFS Picks: Top Drivers for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race | Bristol
Bass Pro Shops Night Race NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy | Bristol Motor Speedway
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NASCAR DFS strategy is all about knowing when to stack the front, the back or something in between. Short tracks, due to the high volume of possible laps to lead, are great places to stack the front, especially with the NextGen car’s passing struggles. We’re at one of those short tracks this weekend, so it’s time to stack the front.
There have been three races on Bristol’s concrete surface (we’re not counting Bristol Dirt) since the debut of the NextGen car. Drivers that started on the pole led at least 10 laps in every event. Last year’s Bristol Night Race saw polesitter Christopher Bell lead 187 of 500 laps before finishing third.
Goodyear brought a new tire to Bristol in the spring, and that created a ton of additional tire wear. This will be the second time drivers are dealing with the new tire on this surface, so Saturday’s event should feature a bit more passing than we saw in the spring race.
This is also a playoff cut race. That means the 15 drivers who haven’t locked up their spot in the next round of the playoffs may race a bit more conservatively (unless they’re in must-win situations, which several could be after stage points go out). Conversely, this also means drivers outside of the playoffs have no reason not to just go for the win.
Alex Bowman & Kyle Larson
It’s not rocket science: Drivers who start near the front have the best chance of leading laps (and recording fastest laps) early in the race. This week, the Hendrick Motorsports cars (and, to a lesser extent, their Spire Motorsports affiliates) dominated qualifying. Alex Bowman ($7,600) will start P1. Kyle Larson ($10,500) will start P2. I expect them to both end up on optimal lineups.
The quick, short-run speed that we saw these drivers flash in qualifying — along with their advantageous starting position — should give Bowman and Larson a high floor via dominator points. There is plenty of risk of negative place differential, but with both Larson and Bowman needing points to lock up their spot in the Round of 12, it’s fair to expect less aggression from them.
Historically, Larson has been great here, notching a win and four top-5s across all four of his starts with Hendrick. He even led 200-plus laps here twice while driving inferior Chip Ganassi Racing equipment. Bowman doesn’t have nearly the same resume, but he finished fourth here in the spring before finishing eighth at the best comparator track, Dover.
Ryan Blaney
I usually spotlight a bargain-bin option or two with my next pick, but instead of giving away those guys for free, I want to talk about one of my other two spend-up plays, Ryan Blaney ($9,400). Blaney is at a bit of a discount relative to Larson ($10,500), Denny Hamlin ($11,000) and Christopher Bell ($10,300), but he still isn’t cheap.
We’re targeting Blaney because of what he did in practice. Although he qualified a dismal 22nd, he ran the second-best single lap in practice as well as the fastest 10 consecutive lap average. Long-run speed matters a ton here, especially with the additional tire fall-off, so he should have an advantage on Saturday night.
Blaney’s awful showing at Watkins Glen raises the stakes for him on Saturday, too. He isn’t below the cut line, but he has a lot less breathing room than he did after his runner-up finish at Atlanta. He’ll have to carve his way through the field, giving us a chance to get place differential points, and his long-run speed could even yield dominator points late in the race.
