The NASCAR Cup Series continues this weekend with action from Darlington Raceway. It’s Labor Day weekend, which means that it’s time for the Southern 500, one of the sport’s Crown Jewel events. This year’s event is extra important, as it’s the final event of the regular season, meaning the playoff field will be decided by the race’s end. Without further ado, let’s dive into our top NASCAR DFS picks for the 2024 Southern 500 at Darlington, including Kyle Larson.
NASCAR DFS Picks: Top Drivers for the 2024 Southern 500 at Darlington
2024 Southern 500 NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy | Darlington Raceway
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Instead of starting with my top drivers for this weekend’s action, I’m going to start by talking strategy. Generally, NASCAR races fall into one of two buckets — they’re either a “stack the back” race, in which dominator points matter less and position differential matters more, or a “stack the front” race, in which dominator points are often determinative.
Darlington Raceway doesn’t easily fit into either category. As a 1.3-mile track hosting a 500-mile race, there are an absolute ton of laps, increasing the value of chasing dominator points. However, unlike most 1.3-mile tracks, it features a rough surface that can chew up tires — and good cars. The driver who led the most laps in the last four Darlington races ultimately finished outside of the top 20.
In the NextGen era (since 2022), starting position does matter — but it doesn’t guarantee much beyond a chance to generate dominator points. Three of the five winners started inside the top five. All five of the drivers who led the most laps started inside the top five, including three pole-sitters and one driver who started runner-up. To create a successful NASCAR DFS lineup at Darlington, you need some drivers who start near the front — and you need them not to wreck.
That said, one of the best strategies for Darlington in the NextGen era has been to target talented drivers who qualify poorly, a la “stack the back.” Kyle Larson won the 2023 Southern 500 from 18th. Kevin Harvick and Chase Elliott scored top-5 results in the spring 2022 race despite starting outside the top 30. Josh Berry and Justin Haley scored top-10s earlier this season after starting outside the top 25.
Ryan Preece
Let’s start with my favorite driver who meets the “talented driver who qualified poorly” category. Ryan Preece ($5,600) is a bargain-bin option who will start in 30th. Although we haven’t seen much from Preece generally, his Stewart Haas teammate, Josh Berry, finished third here in the fall. Another one of his teammates, Chase Briscoe, qualified third. Berry and Preece’s final teammate, Noah Gragson, recorded 10-consecutive-lap averages in practice that ranked in the top five.
The Stewart Haas cars probably won’t compete for the win, but they’re better than the $5,600 salary that Preece has been assigned. All of Preece’s teammates will cost you north of $7,000. This raises an obvious question: does Ryan Preece suck, especially at Darlington?
The answer to that question, in my view, is a clear no. Preece scored a top-10 result here for JD Motorsports here in the Xfinity Series in 2016. In the Trucks, he scored another top-10 result here for David Gilliland Racing in 2022. Preece has also won multiple Truck Series races at Nashville, which is a comparable track to Darlington in terms of size and tire wear.
In the Cup Series, the results haven’t been there for Preece at Darlington, but he has been solid. Since joining Stewart Haas in 2023, Preece has made three starts here, and he improved upon his starting position all three times. He went from 32nd to 15th in May 2023, 34th to 28th in September 2023 and 26th to 17th earlier this season. Preece probably won’t get you a top-10 without some help, but at his bargain-bin salary, he’ll let you get some exposure to more expensive options at the front.
Kyle Larson
This year’s Southern 500 has a strange starting lineup. The drivers starting first through third — Bubba Wallace, Chase Briscoe and Carson Hocevar — aren’t weekly dominators. One of them could lead the most laps, as the recent results here would suggest, but I’m suspicious. I don’t think any of them have the combination of equipment and talent necessary to lead the most laps at Darlington without costing us serious place differential points.
Instead, give me the driver starting in P4, Kyle Larson ($10,700). He could easily slice his way through the first three to take the lead before the end of the first stage. Although he is locked into the playoffs, Larson will have every reason to put together a strong run due to the regular-season title race against Tyler Reddick, who starts in P6.
Unless either of them crashes out, the optimal NASCAR DFS lineup for the 2024 Southern 500 will probably include both Larson and Tyler Reddick. Those two should combine to lead the most laps, and, logically, to generate the most dominator points. The question will become how to fit them both into your lineup without overloading on backmarkers.
