The NASCAR Cup Series has just 10 races left in the season, and that means it’s time for the playoffs. The last three weeks were certainly dramatic, as Austin Dillon*, Harrison Burton and Chase Briscoe won races and playoff spots (*except Dillon, who was removed from the playoffs due to intentionally wrecking Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano). Last week’s article correctly telegraphed the race, predicting a boatload of dominator points for Kyle Larson and a ton of place differential points for Ryan Preece. Can I stay hot this weekend? Let’s dive into our top NASCAR DFS picks for the 2024 Quaker State 400 at Atlanta, including Todd Gilliland.
NASCAR DFS Picks: Top Drivers for the 2024 Quaker State 400 at Atlanta
2024 Quaker State 400 NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy | Atlanta Motor Speedway
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We started with a race strategy section last week, which went swimmingly, so let’s do the same thing this week. Generally, there are two strategies in NASCAR DFS: stacking the back and stacking the front. When you stack the front, you generally earn more dominator points; when you stack the back, you generally earn more place differential points.
Since NASCAR races are variable lengths (and feature a variable number of laps), the optimal strategy is often dictated by the venue. A long track with few laps (especially a drafting track) generally calls for us to stack the back. A short track with many laps generally calls for us to stack the front.
We’re at Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend, which is a 1.5-mile drafting track. Just as is the case with Darlington, the truth is somewhere in the middle. Since the repave, Atlanta has been won twice from the pole (with both winners leading the most laps) — and three times by drivers starting outside the top 10. That said, the polesitter has led the most laps in three of the five events since the repace. A driver starting in the front two rows did so in four of the five.
The questions this week will be (1) who, if anyone, will lead the most laps from the front two rows? and (2) who, if anyone, will improve their position by 15 or more?
Todd Gilliland
The Front Row Racing drivers, Todd Gilliland ($6,800) and Michael McDowell ($7,700), will start in first and third. Ryan Blaney ($10,500) will start second, Josh Berry ($6,400) will start fourth and Austin Cindric ($7,400) will start fifth. All five drivers are behind the wheel of a Ford, so expect plenty of collaboration in the draft between them.
Any of these drivers could get out to an early lead and post the most dominator points this weekend, but my money is on Gilliland. He led the most laps here in the spring before suffering some late-race trouble, but we’ve seen him do big things before, and we won’t have to shell out much to roster him.
Ultimately, with Fords controlling the top five (and dominating the top 10 — we’ve got seven Blue Ovals up there), I’m partial to a Ford correlation stack. Of course, you shouldn’t just start everybody at the front and hope nothing goes wrong, so let’s talk about an option at the rear of the field.
Justin Haley
Almost every driver behind the wheel of a Ford will start inside the top 25. The two exceptions are Cody Ware ($5,300) and Justin Haley ($6,100), who are both teammates at Rick Ware Racing. While I’m skeptical of Ware’s ability to pay off his bargain-bin salary without a ton of wrecks, Haley could do so easily.
Over the five races held here since the repave, Haley has two top-10s, three top-15s, four top-20s and five top-25s. He also has zero DNFs. Importantly, e also improved his starting position in four of the five events, only failing to do so after starting 20th and finishing 22nd last March.
Haley is a one-time winner at a drafting track in the Cup Series, and he is no stranger to the front of the field. If everything falls the right way, he could be much closer to the front of the pack with his Ford teammates by the end of the day, allowing him to pay off his low-end salary.
