If you’re serious about building winning MLB DFS lineups, you need more than projections — you need market-based probabilities that guide your decision-making process. That’s exactly what Stokastic’s Top Hitters and Top Pitchers MLB DFS tools provide: Data-driven probabilities that tell you which players are most likely to outperform the field in fantasy scoring and value on DraftKings and FanDuel.
MLB DFS Top Hitters & Top Pitchers Tools Build Winning Lineups
Understanding the MLB DFS Top Hitters Tool
The Top Hitters Tool gives you the probability that each hitter will lead their position in key DFS categories. It doesn’t just give you raw projections; it quantifies your edge by translating projections into probabilities. This is a crucial edge in tournaments, where ownership is uncertain and upside is everything.
Key Metrics:
- TopFP% – This is the probability that the batter will score the most raw fantasy points at their position.
- Use this to identify players with true ceiling potential. These are your GPP-winning plays.
- TopFP/$ – This metric tells you which players are most likely to return the most fantasy points per dollar of salary.
- It’s a powerful value indicator—particularly useful for cash games and as salary savers in tournaments.
- TopVal% – This is a slightly more nuanced metric: chance of exceeding fantasy points above salary-based expectations, using the formula:
TopVal = FP - (0.002 x Salary)- This balances raw scoring with cost-efficiency and is great for identifying undervalued bats.
Let’s say you’re choosing between two catchers at similar salaries. One has a 12% TopFP% but a low TopVal, while the other has only a 5% TopFP% but a high TopFP/$ and TopVal. If you’re looking for ceiling in a tournament, go with the 12%. If you need value for a high-salary stack, take the efficient hitter.
This tool also helps identify stackable offenses—if you see multiple players from one team with high TopFP% or TopVal%, that team is likely undervalued by salary.
Breaking Down the MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool
Pitching is the foundation of every MLB DFS lineup. On DraftKings, you have two pitcher slots to fill, and they often make up over 40% of your salary cap. The Top Pitchers Tool gives you an analytical edge by showing the probability of each pitcher being one of the highest scorers on the slate.
Key Metrics:
- Top 2 Pitcher% (DK) – The likelihood a pitcher finishes among the top two scorers on the slate (DraftKings-specific).
- Critical for identifying must-have arms or low-owned leverage pivots in tournaments.
- Top FP/$ – This tells you which pitchers are most likely to deliver elite value per dollar of salary.
- Great for pairing an expensive ace with a mid-range arm or finding a sneaky SP2.
If you see a pitcher with a 30% Top 2% chance but a lower Top FP/$, they’re likely an ace priced correctly. You want exposure—but balance it with value plays. Conversely, if a $7,200 pitcher has a Top 2% chance over 20% and strong value metrics, they could be a core piece of a tournament build.
Use this tool in tandem with ownership projections to find leverage — high ceiling pitchers who are underplayed in the field are GPP gold.
Combining the Tools for Lineup Construction
To build a competitive MLB DFS lineup:
- Anchor your pitchers using the Top 2% and FP/$ metrics—identify one high-ceiling and one value option.
- Stack intelligently by using TopFP% to find hitters with slate-breaking potential.
- Round out your lineups using TopVal and TopFP/$ hitters to balance floor and upside at low ownership.
- Exploit mispriced players—a hitter with high TopVal and low ownership often signals a modeling edge.
These tools are especially powerful when combined with Stokastic’s Ownership, Top Stack and Boom/Bust tools, giving you a complete probabilistic framework to make smarter DFS decisions.
