With MLB DFS Opening Day finally here, we are breaking down Sims data in detail to give DraftKings players an edge in large-field tournaments. The goal is to offer insights on exposures, stacks, leverage plays and stack constructions based on 10,000 simulated lineups for today’s marquee DraftKings slate. Here’s a full breakdown of what stood out in the DraftKings MLB DFS Sims, projections and ownership.
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MLB DFS DraftKings Sims Data: Projections, Ownership & More
This sims breakdown centers around a DraftKings large-field contest with a 25% payout to first place. Stokastic simulated 10,000 lineups for the Opening Day marquee slate and then zeroed in on the top 300 ROI lineups to identify the best plays and stacking strategies relative to the field.
Top Player Exposures in Top-ROI Lineups
These are the players who showed up most often in the top 300 ROI lineups:
Pitchers:
- Yusei Kikuchi (54%)
- Chris Sale (31%)
Catcher: Endy Rodriguez (15%)
First Base: Carlos Santana (25%)
Second Base: Jose Altuve (20%)
Shortstop: Luis Rengifo (18%)
Third Base: Jose Ramirez (55%)
Outfielders:
- Lane Thomas (33%)
- Jhonkensy Noel (32%)
- Yordan Alvarez (22%)
Kikuchi led all pitchers in exposure and drew a favorable matchup against the White Sox, while Ramirez topped all hitters, likely due to strong individual projections and stack synergy.
Best ROI Stacks
When it comes to stacking, the Sims flagged the following as the most +EV:
- 3-Man Stacks: Marlins, Guardians
- 4-Man Stacks: Marlins, Guardians
- 5-Man Stacks: Marlins, Guardians, Braves, Rangers, Nationals
The Marlins were especially notable, ranking No. 1 across all stack sizes. They’re a classic contrarian team here: Low projected ownership but high upside if they go off.
Most Popular Stacks in the Sims
These were the stacks that actually showed up most often in the 10,000 simulated lineups:
3-Man Stacks:
- Guardians (11.7%)
- Astros (5.3%)
- Braves (3%)
4-Man Stacks:
- Guardians (9.3%)
- Braves (4.7%)
- Angels (4%)
5-Man Stacks:
- Guardians (17%)
- Braves (11%)
- Rangers (9.3%)
The Guardians were a clear standout, appearing at the top of every stack size category. Their lineup projects well and fits nicely in roster constructions even at higher ownership.
Top Leverage Plays
These are players who showed up significantly more in the top-ROI lineups compared to their projected ownership. In other words, they offer leverage on the field:
- Lane Thomas: +25%
- Jhonkensy Noel: +24%
- Dylan Crews: +12%
- Steve Kwan: +10%
- Marcell Ozuna: +9%
Leverage plays like these can separate your lineup from the pack in large-field GPPs, especially when paired with chalky stacks.
Stack Construction Trends
Among the top 300 ROI lineups, these were the most common stack types:
- 5-2 stacks: 24.7%
- 5-man stacks: 15.3%
- 4-3 stacks: 10.7%
- 4-man stacks: 6.0%
- 5-3 stacks: 8.0%
The 5-2 stack was far and away the most successful structure in the simulations.
A Few More Notes
The thread alluded to projected ownership data and top value plays, but those weren’t broken out in detail. If you want to explore that yourself, Stokastic’s tools allow for simulation of up to 5,000 lineups and include in-depth ownership and value projections.
