Advanced simulations of 5,000 DraftKings lineups for the April 4 DraftKings MLB DFS slate have revealed key edges for large-field tournament players. With the payout structure giving 25% to first place, differentiation and leverage are critical — especially in contests with massive entries. Here’s a data-driven breakdown of MLB DFS Sims exposures, leverage opportunities, stack potential and optimal roster construction strategies for the slate.
For a full breakdown of our Sims, MLB DFS ownership projections, MLB DFS projections and everything Stokastic has to offer, be sure to check out our MLB DFS package details.
MLB DFS DraftKings Sims Data: Projections, Ownership & More
This sims breakdown uses a DraftKings large-field contest with a 25% payout to first place. Stokastic simulated 5,000 lineups for the main slate and then zeroed in on the highest-ROI lineups to identify the best plays and stacking strategies relative to the field.
Top Player Exposures by Position
Simulated exposures across 5,000 lineups revealed where ownership may be concentrated and where leverage opportunities lie.
- P: Spencer Schwellenbach – 45%
- P: Yoshinobu Yamamoto – 37%
- C: Bo Naylor – 28%
- 1B: Shohei Ohtani – 20%
- 2B: Gabriel Arias – 17%
- 3B: Jose Ramirez – 37%
- SS: C.J. Abrams – 18%
- OF: Michael Harris – 25%
- OF: Christian Yelich – 23%
- OF: Lane Thomas – 22%
Of note: Schwellenbach is projected at 45% in the Sims but expected to be rostered in 54% of lineups, marking him as a -9% negative leverage play — a signal that he may be overowned relative to his true upside.
Leverage Plays: Where Sims and the Field Diverge
Identifying leverage is key in top-heavy GPPs. Players with significantly higher simulated exposure than projected ownership represent actionable upside.
Top Positive Leverage Plays
- Jose Ramirez: +27%
- Bo Naylor: +19%
- Lane Thomas: +15%
- Nolan Jones: +15%
- Christian Yelich: +12%
The Cleveland Guardians dominate this list, revealing strong value across their lineup compared to field expectations.
Top Negative Leverage Plays
- Spencer Schwellenbach: -9%
- Jeimer Candelario: -9%
- Austin Barnes: -6%
- Adley Rutschman: -6%
- Mike Trout: -6%
Several high-profile players show up here, indicating potential overexposure by the field without matching ROI.
Stack Exposures: Guardians Lead Across the Board
Stacking remains a core strategy in MLB DFS, and simulations show the Guardians leading every major stack category.
Five-Man Stacks
- Guardians: 21%
- Braves: 10%
- Brewers: 8%
- Diamondbacks: 8%
- Rays: 7%
Four-Man Stacks
- Guardians: 6%
- Brewers: 5%
- Braves: 4%
Three-Man Stacks
- Brewers: 5%
- Guardians: 5%
- Nationals: 5%
Top Sim ROI Lineup: Low Ownership, High Upside
A standout lineup from the simulation features a 5-2 stack built around the Guardians and Marlins. Despite not having the absolute highest fantasy projection, its low ownership and Sim ROI make it an elite tournament option.
Lineup Construction
- P: Jesus Luzardo
- P: Nick Martinez
- C: Bo Naylor
- 1B: Kyle Manzardo
- 2B: Otto Lopez
- 3B: Jose Ramirez
- SS: Xavier Edwards
- OF: Kyle Schwarber
- OF: Steven Kwan
- OF: Lane Thomas
- Ownership Sum: 67%
- Fantasy Projection: 87.83
- Sim ROI: 82%
Top Budget Value Plays
To round out rosters with affordable upside, these players offer strong value in simulation results:
- Bryan De La Cruz
- Miguel Rojas
- Jarred Kelenic
- Josh Smith
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand
These options provide critical salary relief to pair with premium stacks or high-priced anchors like Ohtani or Ramirez.
Most Duplicated Lineups: What to Avoid
The most duplicated lineups in the simulation were all negative ROI builds. These constructions leaned heavily on the most popular names, offering minimal differentiation.
Common player combinations in these builds included:
- Spencer Schwellenbach
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Austin Barnes
- Shohei Ohtani
- Ozzie Albies
- Austin Riley
- Mookie Betts
- Michael Harris II
- Jarred Kelenic
- Bryan De La Cruz
Variations also featured Gabriel Moreno, Matt Olson, Orlando Arcia, Corbin Carroll and Jake McCarthy.
