It is time to continue our MLB DFS Punt Plays series for the DraftKings and FanDuel main slate. Today’s top value plays feature Kyle Harrison, Tyler Black and more.
However, some context first.
A quality MLB DFS punt play is not only cheap to roster but crucially has upside worth pursuing. In baseball, that often translates into an inconsistent batter with power-hitting or stolen base potential. Or it could be a volatile pitcher offering strikeout upside and the ability to pitch deep into ballgames. Whatever the reason, there is enough rationale to believe that punt plays exceed the value of their price tag and recognizing a great punt play is critical to success in MLB DFS.
This article will highlight the top punt plays available on Tuesday’s eight-game MLB main slate, locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
For a limited time only, you can use promo code MLBSIMSWEEK to get access to one week of our industry-leading MLB Sims Max, Sims Data or Data packages for 40% off by clicking here!
MLB DFS Punt Plays Today – May 7
Kyle Harrison – SP, SF vs. COL
MLB DFS DraftKings: $6,400
MLB DFS FanDuel: $8,600
Even with the game playing at Coors Field, Kyle Harrison is too cheap for his talent level. Harrison has a 22.8% top-2 value projection to lead all pitchers on this slate . Through seven starts, he sports a strong 3.84 xERA and 3.96 xFIP. That success includes a .313 xwOBA and an above-average 23.9% strikeout rate. Harrison’s entire MLB career is still just 14 starts deep, and the 22-year-old has already made remarkable strides. He flashed prolific strikeout numbers throughout his minor league tenure, and he appears to be working toward unlocking a ceiling we haven’t seen yet.
The Colorado Rockies are one of baseball’s worst offenses right now. They are plating just 3.6 runs per game on the season. That includes an 83 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, alongside a 24.2% strikeout rate.
Tyler Black – 1B, MIL vs. KC
MLB DFS DraftKings: $2,900
MLB DFS FanDuel: $2,500
After Tyler Black made his MLB debut last week, the Milwaukee Brewers have already entrusted him with a significant role, batting out of the three-hole in his most recent appearances. He is hitting just .211 through his first six games, though Black’s minor league production highlights his ceiling. He posted a .919 OPS across 25 games in Triple-A to open the season and a .930 OPS with 18 home runs and 55 stolen bases over 123 games in 2023. Black is the fourth-ranked prospect in the Brewers farm system, per MLB Pipeline, offering above-average power, an elite 60-grade hit tool and phenomenal speed. There are numerous ways he can pay off his cheap price tag today.
Seth Lugo is on a shortlist for pitchers who are the most overdue for regression. Over his first seven starts, Lugo sports an outstanding 1.60 ERA, yet the advanced numbers paint a remarkably different picture. Under the surface, Lugo carries a mediocre 4.15 xERA and 4.20 xFIP. The struggles include a weak 17.6% strikeout rate and a 20.9% whiff rate, alongside some concerning batted-ball metrics like a 9% barrel rate and a .447 xSLG. A day of retribution is coming for Lugo, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Black be a part of it.
Nick Gordon – OF, MIA vs. LAD
MLB DFS DraftKings: $2,900
MLB DFS FanDuel: $2,600
There isn’t a lot of punt value to be plucked from the outfield today, but Nick Gordon is an interesting way to get different in tournaments for under $3,000 on DraftKings. The 28-year-old is slashing an underwhelming .212/.244/.424 on the season. However, Gordon is producing better power than he gets credit for, smashing his way to five home runs. He has a strong .423 xSLG, part of a .444 career mark.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be among the most popular pitchers to roster on this slate, which means playing a Miami Marlins one-off should bring considerable leverage to your lineup. The optics on Yamamoto are fantastic so far, though he has one recurring problem – he gets hit hard. Yamamoto has surrendered a problematic 10.1% barrel rate and a 43.8% hard-hit rate. I wouldn’t stack against him, but Gordon connecting for a home run is well within the range of outcomes.
For a limited time only, you can use promo code MLBSIMSWEEK to get access to one week of our industry-leading MLB Sims Max, Sims Data or Data packages for 40% off by clicking here!
Editor Note: If you’re looking for the best MLB DFS picks daily, we got you. On the other hand, if you’re looking for something with more of a gambling tilt, our friends over at OddsShopper can get you going by teaching you how to bet on home runs. You can also look at our brand new MLB Weather Forecast page for daily weather reports on today’s games.
