It is time to continue our MLB DFS Punt Plays series for the DraftKings and FanDuel main slate. Today’s top value plays feature Andrew Heaney, Josh Rojas and more.
However, some context first.
A quality MLB DFS punt play is not only cheap to roster but crucially has upside worth pursuing. In baseball, that often translates into an inconsistent batter with power-hitting or stolen base potential. Or it could be a volatile pitcher offering strikeout upside and the ability to pitch deep into ballgames. Whatever the reason, there is enough rationale to believe that punt plays exceed the value of their price tag and recognizing a great punt play is critical to success in MLB DFS.
This article will highlight the top punt plays available on Monday’s six-game MLB main slate, locking at 7:10 p.m. ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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MLB DFS Punt Plays Today – May 3
Andrew Heaney – SP, TEX vs. OAK
MLB DFS DraftKings: $6,600
MLB DFS FanDuel: $7,700
Andrew Heaney chalk is never ideal, but that’s chalk I’m willing to eat on this short slate. He is far and away the best affordable pitching option, carrying a 25.6% top-2 value rating. Heaney’s 5.10 ERA looks ugly on the surface, though his advanced numbers are more encouraging. He sports a decent 4.10 xERA and is limiting baserunners with a strong .234 xBA and a respectable 7.2% walk rate. Heaney has generated at least 12.3 DraftKings points in each of his last three outings, and anything above that is worthwhile at his price tag today.
There is a perception that the Oakland Athletics offense is rebounding after a slow start, but a lot of that is isolated to a 20-run outburst against the Marlins on Saturday. If we exclude that game as an outlier, Oakland is scoring fewer than 3.1 runs per game this season. Even with that 20-run game included, that figure is only around 3.5 runs per game. Those struggles consist of a mediocre 96 wRC+ and a 25.7% strikeout rate. This remains a great matchup for opposing hitters, especially in the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum.
Dylan Carlson – OF, STL vs. NYM
MLB DFS DraftKings: $2,400
MLB DFS FanDuel: $2,500
Dylan Carlson was activated off the injured list over the weekend, and he figures to immediately slot in as the St. Louis Cardinals’ everyday centerfielder. The 25-year-old has never been a standout hitter across his four-year MLB career, but he does excel against left-handed pitchers. Carlson is slugging .469 against southpaws for his career, including a 134 wRC+ and a .164 ISO.
Sean Manaea is a decent pitcher, but his 3.07 ERA is deceptive. Looking under the hood, Manaea sports a less-inspired 4.77 xERA and a 4.77 xFIP. He hasn’t surrendered much power yet, though the underlying numbers suggest he’s due. Opposing hitters are generating a 41% hard-hit rate, 89.3 mph average exit velocity and a 7.7% barrel rate. Manaea is below average in virtually every category that matters. Furthermore, he has historically given up a lot more power than we’ve seen in 2024. Right-handed hitters slugged .446 against Manaea last season, part of a .434 career mark.
Josh Rojas – 3B, SEA vs. MIN
MLB DFS DraftKings: $3,400
MLB DFS FanDuel: $2,800
Josh Rojas’ price tag on DraftKings is pushing the boundary of what constitutes a punt play, but the value is hard to ignore. In the absence of J.P. Crawford, Rojas is thriving in the Seattle Mariners’ leadoff spot. He is slashing .360/.442/.587 with three home runs, three stolen bases and a staggering 198 wRC+. The success includes a .506 xSLG, 47.6% sweet-spot rate and a .300 xBA. Rojas won’t remain this cheap for long.
The 2.45 ERA looks good on Simeon Woods Richardson, but all the peripherals suggest it’s an unsustainable run of luck. Underneath the surface, he carries a 4.83 xERA, which seems more appropriate given the 6.08 ERA he posted in three Triple-A appearances to begin the season, and the 4.91 ERA over 113.2 innings in the minors in 2023. Incredibly, Woods Richardson has not surrendered a home run this season despite a .495 xSLG, 8.7% barrel rate and a 43.5% hard-hit rate.
For a limited time only, you can use promo code MLBSIMSWEEK to get access to one week of our industry-leading MLB Sims Max, Sims Data or Data packages for 40% off by clicking here!
Editor Note: If you’re looking for the best MLB DFS picks daily, we got you. On the other hand, if you’re looking for something with more of a gambling tilt, our friends over at OddsShopper can get you going by teaching you how to bet on home runs. You can also look at our brand new MLB Weather Forecast page for daily weather reports on today’s games.
