With DraftKings having two roster spots for pitchers, it creates an opportunity to take a stand in a limited player pool. To play it safe, the majority of users like to roster the chalkiest pitchers in hopes of their bats being the main focal point of their lineup. While in theory it is a great strategy, it limits a lineup’s ability to stand out from the rest and ultimately land in the top 5 of a large-field GPP. That’s why we need MLB DFS pivots.
The goal in this breakdown is to find which pitchers can give lineups the opportunity to return massive ROI while being undrowned across the field. Using Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, we are able to determine the pitchers that are expected to be chalk, along with the pitchers that are projected for high leverage in contests. The correlation of high leverage but low ownership is a crucial piece to unlocking a lineup’s potential.
Let’s dive into which pitchers stand out in both of these categories to find the best MLB DFS pivots for tonight.
Best MLB DFS Pivots Today: Yoshinobu Yamamoto & More (April 12)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,600)
Yamamoto is currently projected for 1% ownership on a slate where there are only two other pitchers priced above $9,000: Kevin Gausman ($10,000) and Freddy Peralta ($9,300). I am expecting Yamamoto’s ownership projection to rise the closer we get to lock, but Yoshinobu’s 7.3% leverage makes it clear that he will be the least popular spend-up option for tonight.
Getting into Yamamoto’s matchup, he is facing a Padres lineup that hit him hard in his first MLB start, as he gave up five runs on four hits in only one inning. Since then, Yamamoto has been elite, giving up zero runs on five hits, striking out 13 and walking two in 10 innings. San Diego is coming off a series win against the Cubs where they managed to average 6.6 in three games, driving in at least nine runs in two of the three games.
If we take a look at the Padres performances before the Cubs series, we see that this is an inconsistent offense that was only averaging 2.6 runs in their last five games and managing to record only one home run. Mix that in with a revenge factor for wanting to redeem himself for his first start, and we are looking at a high-upside matchup for Yamamoto, who is coming in at nearly no ownership.
Jordan Wicks ($7,900)
After two decent starts against the Dodgers and the Rangers, Wicks’ price got discounted from the mid-$8,000s down to $7,900. He grades out great in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool by being the third-highest-leveraged pitcher at 5.2% while only projecting to pull 4% ownership. Wicks on the season has a 30.2% strikeout rate, which makes this matchup against the Mariners stand out, as they have the highest strikeout percentage in MLB (29.2%).
One place that can hurt Wicks is his 9.3% walk rate, but the Mariners also have the sixth-lowest walk rate at 7.8%. To put the cherry on top for this pivot, he gets to pitch at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, which is the third-most pitcher-friendly park in MLB. With Wicks having an advantage in all of the metrics that go into predicting a pitcher’s performance, I will undoubtedly be overweight on his 4% projected ownership.
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