With DraftKings having two roster spots for pitchers, it creates an opportunity to take a stand in a limited player pool. To play it safe, the majority of users like to roster the chalkiest pitchers in hopes of their bats being the main focal point of their lineup. While in theory it is a great strategy, it limits a lineup’s ability to stand out from the rest and ultimately land in the top 5 of a large-field GPP. That’s why we need MLB DFS pivots.
The goal in this breakdown is to find which pitchers can give lineups the opportunity to return massive ROI while being undrowned across the field. Using Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, we are able to determine the pitchers that are expected to be chalk, along with the pitchers that are projected for high leverage in contests. The correlation of high leverage but low ownership is a crucial piece to unlocking a lineup’s potential.
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Let’s dive into which pitchers stand out in both of these categories to find the best MLB DFS pivots for today.
Best MLB DFS Pivots Today: Sean Manaea and More (April 19)
Blake Snell ($9,300)
Snell jumps off the page in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, currently the highest-leveraged pitcher at 10.3% while only projected for 9% ownership in a matchup against the Diamondbacks. At first glance, I was shocked to see him projected for such low ownership, but it makes sense with pitchers like Freddy Peralta ($9,500), Chris Sale ($9,400) and Joe Ryan ($8,900) all having great matchups and projecting to be over 25% owned. The low ownership for Snell can be credited to the two terrible — and I mean terrible — starts he has had this season, giving up 10 earned runs on nine hits, striking out nine and walking four in just seven innings.
On the season, the Diamondbacks are one of the lowest strikeout percentage teams at 17.4%. If we exclude an explosion of a game where they drove in 12 runs, Arizona has been in a bit of a funk, with starting pitchers striking out 14 and walking four, pointing out how they have not been generating as many walks recently. It’s a risky spot for Snell, but the upside is given his respectable 26.5% strikeout this season and facing an offense that might be in a slump.
Sean Manaea ($9,000)
Manaea is another pitcher in a scary matchup, but scared money doesn’t make money. Manaea is on the road to face a Dodgers team that has the 10th-highest strikeout percentage at 24.4%. That works out great for Manaea, as he has a 27.7% strikeout rate through 14.2 innings this season, the highest mark in his career. Manaea is the second-highest-leveraged pitcher in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool at 9.5%, and he is currently projected for less than 1% ownership tonight.
In a lot of instances, it makes no sense to play Manaea with an inflated price tag and a tough matchup, but we are looking for pitchers that no one else wants to play. A safe way to incorporate Manaea in lineups tonight is going with 5% to 10% of him, still allowing us to get way over the field while not banking our whole night on him performing well. Don’t come for my head if he gets rocked tonight, but players ranking high in leverage percentage have been a common denominator in winning lineups.
Get started finding the best MLB DFS pivots by using Stokastic tools today! Check out all we have to offer here!
