With DraftKings having two roster spots for pitchers, it creates an opportunity to take a stand in a very limited player pool. To play it safe, the majority of users like to roster the chalkiest pitchers in hopes of their bats being the main focal point of their lineup. While in theory it is a great strategy, it limits a lineup’s ability to stand out from the rest and ultimately land in the top 5 of a large-field GPP. Our goal in this breakdown is find which MLB DFS pivots at pitcher can give our lineups the opportunity to return massive ROI while being very undrowned across the field.
Using Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, we are able to determine the pitchers that are expected to be chalk, along with the pitchers that are projected for high leverage in contests. The correlation of high leverage but low ownership is a crucial piece to unlocking a lineup’s potential. Let’s dive into which pitchers stand out in both of these categories to find our favorite MLB DFS pivots for tonight.
Best MLB DFS Pivots Today: Zac Gallen & More (April 2)
MLB DFS Pivot: Zac Gallen ($9,100)
Gallen takes the mound at home against a strong Yankees team whose offense is averaging 5.2 run a game in its first five matchups. He had a very underwhelming season opener against the Rockies where he went five innings, allowing three hits and one run but only recording three strikeouts while walking two batters. One thing to note is in Gallen’s last start, the Diamondbacks drove in 14 runs in the bottom of the third inning, essentially killing any competitive spirit for players on both sides.
Gallen grades out highly in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, the second-best leverage play at 8.4% while only projected to pull 9% ownership. I attribute the low ownership projection to the healthy number of mid-priced options at pitcher on tonight’s slate. With pitchers like Yu Darvish at $8,200 with 26.7% ownership and Brayan Bello at $8,000 with 26.5% ownership, it makes sense as to why Gallen at $9,100 in a scary matchup is going lowly owned. With that being said, it is very hard to ignore the amount of leverage we can get by rostering him.
MLB DFS Pivot: Luis Castillo ($9,400)
Castillo is a great play for many of the same reasons that Gallen is, except Castillo has a much easier path to success. Castillo is at home tonight in a matchup against a Guardians offense that can be very top heavy in terms of talent. Outside of the first three batters in this lineup, there is no one to fear as a threat to blow up Castillo’s night. He got knocked around a bit in his first start of the season, allowing six hits and four runs in five innings, which makes this an even more appealing spot for him considering this could be a bounce-back spot.
Castillo looks amazing in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, with the third-highest leverage at 6.7% and only pulling 15% ownership. The Top 2% column shows Castillo dominating that category with a 21.7% chance, 3 points higher than the next closest. Again, with the slate having plenty of cheaper and popular plays at pitcher, Castillo is in a position to slip through the cracks and become essential to a winning lineup.
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