With DraftKings having two roster spots for pitchers, it creates an opportunity to take a stand in a limited player pool. To play it safe, most users like to roster the chalkiest pitchers in hopes of their bats being the main focal point of their lineup. While in theory it is a great strategy, it limits a lineup’s ability to stand out from the rest and ultimately land in the top 5 of a large-field GPP. That’s why we need MLB DFS pivots.
The goal in this breakdown is to find which pitchers can give lineups the opportunity to return massive ROI while being undrowned across the field. Using Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, we are able to determine the pitchers that are expected to be chalk, along with the pitchers that are projected for high leverage in contests. The correlation of high leverage but low ownership is a crucial piece to unlocking a lineup’s potential.
Let’s dive into which pitchers stand out in both of these categories to find the best MLB DFS pivots for today.
Best MLB DFS Pivots Today: Max Fried and More (May 17)
Freddy Peralta ($10,400)
This one is somewhat shocking considering how good Peralta has been this season. Nonetheless, we are getting one of the best pitchers in the MLB at just 2.8% ownership in a game against the Astros. This isn’t a great matchup on paper, as the Astros have one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league, but they do have a measly .144 ISO against righties and a very low 8.2% walk rate.
We are relying more on Peralta being better than the Astros tonight, as he has a 31.9% strikeout rate and a 3.28 xFIP in over 40 innings this season. He’s currently the highest-leveraged pitcher at 8.5% while having an 11.3% chance of being a top-2 arm, fifth highest on a 13-game slate. He is going low-owned due to his $10,400 price tag, highest among pitchers, but that’s no reason not to get to at least 10% Peralta in your lineups tonight. He’s an elite pitcher getting minimal ownership while drawing incredible leverage. Let’s not overthink this one.
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Max Fried ($10,500)
Fried is currently projected for 7.5% ownership at home taking on the Padres, who have a 3.8 implied total, third lowest on the slate. After a rough start to the season, Fried has been on a heater in his last four starts, only allowing four runs on seven hits while striking out 25 batters in 29 innings. The Padres don’t grade out as a huge strikeout team against lefties, but they do struggle in this split, having the fourth-lowest wOBA at .278 and the seventh lowest wRC+ at 83. Looking at Fried through Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, he has the sixth-highest chance at being a top-2 pitcher with a 10.4% chance and has positive leverage at 2.9%. With so many factors benefiting Fried, along with a reasonable $8,800 price tag, look to be heavy on the Atlanta southpaw in a soft matchup at home.
Get started finding the best MLB DFS pivots by using Stokastic tools today! Check out all we have to offer here!
