With DraftKings having two roster spots for pitchers, it creates an opportunity to take a stand in a limited player pool. To play it safe, the majority of users like to roster the chalkiest pitchers in hopes of their bats being the main focal point of their lineup. While in theory it is a great strategy, it limits a lineup’s ability to stand out from the rest and ultimately land in the top 5 of a large-field GPP. That’s why we need MLB DFS pivots.
The goal in this breakdown is to find which pitchers can give lineups the opportunity to return massive ROI while being undrowned across the field. Using Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, we are able to determine the pitchers that are expected to be chalk, along with the pitchers that are projected for high leverage in contests. The correlation of high leverage but low ownership is a crucial piece to unlocking a lineup’s potential.
Let’s dive into which pitchers stand out in both of these categories to find the best MLB DFS pivots for today.
Best MLB DFS Pivots Today: MacKenzie Gore and More (April 30)
Spencer Turnbull ($9,100)
Yes, I touted Christopher Sanchez against this team yesterday. No, it did not work out for me. With that being said, I am going back to the well. Turnbull has been great this year with a 28.3% strikeout percentage, a 3.25 xFIP and 0.85 WHIP in 27 innings. The Angels are still a strikeout-happy team, having the sixth-highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers (24.9%) and the sixth-highest strikeout percentage in the last 14 days (25.5%).
Turning it over to Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, Turnbull is currently the highest-leveraged pitcher at 7.6% while only pulling 2.6%. This is due in part to tonight’s slate having NINE pitchers in the $8,000 range, with arms like Mitch Keller ($8,800), Luis Castillo ($8,600) and Logan Webb ($8,300) all projecting for over 18% ownership. Turnbull’s low ownership is something that can easily be taken advantage of by only having to go with around 10% to 15% of him in lineups to be considered overweight. I’ll play the statistics game and bank on Turnbull thriving in this high-upside matchup.
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MacKenzie Gore ($8,100)
Gore is in a tough spot on the road to face the Rangers, but there is some room for exploitation in this matchup, as the Rangers have the sixth-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers (26.2%) and the 10th-lowest walk rate against lefties (7%). This fares well for Gore with his 28.7% strikeout percentage and a respectable 7.6% walk rate on the season, both career bests for him.
He looks decent leverage-wise, with a 3.1% leverage percentage at only 4.7% ownership, sixth lowest among nine pitchers in the $8,000 range. His price tag at $8,100 is super intriguing as well considering his ability to rack up strikeouts in bunches, allowing us to still roster a $10,000 Freddy Peralta or Turnbull while still being able to play some mid-tier stacks. It’s a tough matchup, but I love getting to around 10% to 20% Gore on a huge 12-game slate where he can manage to strike out at least six batters at a decent price tag.
Get started finding the best MLB DFS pivots by using Stokastic tools today! Check out all we have to offer here!
