It is time to continue our MLB DFS pitcher pivots series by taking a look at both Kyle Bradish and Mitchell Parker.
With DraftKings having two roster spots for pitchers, it creates an opportunity to take a stand in a very limited player pool. To play it safe, the majority of user’s like to roster the chalkiest pitchers in hopes of their bats being the main focal point of their lineup. While in theory it is a great strategy, it limits a lineups ability to stand out from the rest and ultimately land in the top 5 of a large field GPP.
Our goal in this breakdown is to find which pitchers can give our lineups the opportunity to return massive ROI% while being very undrowned across the field. Using our Top Pitchers tool, we are able to determine the pitchers that are expected to be “chalk” along with the pitchers that are projected for high leverage in contests. The correlation of high leverage but low ownership is a crucial piece to unlocking a lineup’s potential.Â
Let’s dive into which pitchers stand out in both of these categories to find our favorite pivots for tonight.
MLB DFS Pitcher Pivots
$8,400 Kyle Bradish
Kyle Bradish had a very solid 2024 debut against the Yankees, where he went 4.2 innings allowing one run on four hits and two walks while striking out five. He was limited by being on a pitch count, however, 84 pitches in his first start is very promising that we will see a loose leash tonight.
He’s facing the Nationals who don’t strike out a ton with a 21.6 K% in the last 14 days, but are tied for the second lowest team total on the slate, 3.9 runs. Looking at Bradish in our Top Pitchers tool, he ranks among the best of them in each category, having a 19% chance at being a Top 2 pitcher, while having a 14.4% chance at being a Top 2 value pitcher. Bradish is getting some love tonight with 17% projected ownership, though it does not compare to guys like $9,800 Chris Sale, $9,000 George Kirby, and $8,800 Aaron Civale, all of whom are projected for north of +25%.
Overall, I love price tag on Kyle Bradish at $8,400 in a matchup that can land him at the top of the leaderboards tonight.Â
$8,500 Mitchell Parker
Very rarely do I write about two pitchers in the same matchup, but it was either Parker or Rodon, and I would not feel safe playing Rodon tonight.
There are some glaring numbers in this matchup for Mitchell Parker I just can’t ignore. First off, he’s facing the Orioles’ who have the highest K% in the last 7 days at 28.8%. Secondly, they have the 9th highest strikeout rate against LHP this season at 24%. So we see he’s in a favorable matchup.
A cool piece of information to add, the total on the game opened at 9, and has dropped all the way down to 8 despite having 94% of bets on the over at BetMGM. Big money coming in on the under. Back to DFS. In our Top Pitchers tool, Parker is the highest leveraged arm at 8.6% and is only projected for 1.4% ownership, while having a 10% chance at being a Top 2 pitcher.
With everything being said, I’m planning to be well over the field on his 1% ownership, maybe 15-20%, with this matchup being so enticing for the Nationals lefty.
Editor Note: If you’re looking for the best MLB DFS picks daily, we got you. On the other hand, if you’re looking for something with more of a gambling tilt, our friends over at OddsShopper can get you going by teaching you how to bet on home runs. You can also look at our brand new MLB Weather Forecast page for daily weather reports on today’s games.
