Thursday has split-slate action, with the largest tournament locking at 6:35 p.m. ET on FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo. Today we’ll dive into the MLB DFS projections and leverage Stokastic’s tools to see how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers and craft optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Zack Wheeler, Zach Eflin and Bailey Ober as preferred pitchers, while the Baltimore Orioles are the best stack for today’s featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 15
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Zack Wheeler (PHI vs. WAS)
Phillies vs. Nationals – 3.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
$9,600 at DraftKings
$10,400 at FanDuel
$54 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool, love the matchup for RHP Zack Wheeler as he battles LHP Chris Sale for the National League Cy Young Award, with rookie RHP Paul Skenes still in the mix.
Wheeler is the clear favorite tonight from a median fantasy point perspective, and his per-dollar ratio is still strong. The 34-year-old is having another outstanding year, though it does not quite measure up to his 2021 campaign, when he was the runner-up to RHP Corbin Burnes in the Cy Young voting.
The bona fides are there for Wheeler, but as we saw last night with the meltdown of LHP Robbie Ray, tournaments can get turned upside down quickly when a massively popular pitcher implodes. Washington has created runs right around league average this season against right-handed pitching, with a 100 wRC+ for the current active roster. The hallmark of this team is limited strikeouts, accompanied by below-average power.
Juan Yepez, James Wood, Andres Chaparro and Alex Call have combined for a scant 264 plate appearances against right-handed hurlers this season. CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia and Keibert Ruiz will do what they can to stabilize the lineup, but it is not going to be easy against a top-5 hurler.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Zach Eflin (BAL vs. BOS)
Orioles vs. Red Sox- 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:35 p.m. ET
$6,900 at DraftKings
$8,400 at FanDuel
$42 at Yahoo
In the three games since the Orioles acquired RHP Zach Eflin from Tampa Bay, he has logged 19.1 innings, a 2.33 ERA, 3.07 FIP and 3.69 xFIP. Now in his age-30 season, we know what we are getting with the veteran pitcher, who has never consistently capitalized on his strikeout stuff.
In his last three seasons pitching for the Phillies and then again last year with Tampa, Eflin continued to decrease his home run rate while maintaining one of the league best walk rates. Boston has been outstanding against right-handed pitching this season, with the active roster carrying a 121 wRC+, trailing only the 127 wRC+ of the Yankees. There is danger in this matchup, with Rafael Devers, Dominic Smith and Wilyer Abreu having success against Eflin in the past, but on a three-game slate, we do not have much to choose from. It is harder to go this route on FanDuel, with the blue site giving crucial bonus points for quality starts and Eflin hit or miss with his efficiency.
Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Bailey Ober (MIN at TEX)
Twins at Rangers – 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
$8,200 at DraftKings
$10,600 at FanDuel
$52 at Yahoo
Over his last nine starts, RHP Baily Ober has earned a quality start in each. During this stretch, the 29-year-old has accrued 61.1 innings, a 1.76 ERA, 3.00 FIP, a 3.22 xFIP and 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings.
Texas is not an easy matchup, though at times the offense has been inconsistent. Josh Jung is back in action, but Evan White has pretty much been ruled out for the remainder of the season. Over the last 30 days, Texas has averaged just over four runs per game, which is right around league average. The argument between Eflin and Ober mostly comes down to personal risk tolerance. Texas and Boston each have comparable top-end talent, but the overall lineup for the Rangers is stronger and Ober costs more across the board. Of course, that is likely to come with discounted popularity, which makes for a fun decision point.
Unlock the full potential of Stokastic’s Lineup Generator and take your MLB DFS picks to the next level with our comprehensive Lineup Generator Guide!
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles
Orioles vs. Red Sox – 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:35 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Nick Pivetta
DK Top Stack %: 13.4%
FD Top Stack %: 13.5%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool is hoping the trend is our friend, with RHP Nick Pivetta having allowed a pair of round-trippers in each of his last three starts. He has been racking up the strikeouts with 21 in these 14 innings, but that has not saved him from allowing 13 runs. To be fair, the worst outing was in Coors Field three games ago, but the Rockies are a horrible offense, while Baltimore is one of the best.
The Batters of Birdland are tied with the Yankees atop the home run leaderboard while running away with the total bases category, leading Boston by 61 and New York by 65. Pivetta has had power issues throughout his career, so this is a frightening matchup against a lefty-laden lineup. Over the last two seasons, Pivetta has allowed a .234 ISO in 420 opposite-handed matchups.
Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Ryan O’Hearn and Colton Cowser are the first attack wave for stacks as the lefties. Cedric Mullins and Jackson Holliday also have the platoon advantage, though they will be at the bottom of the order. That leaves Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle and Ramon Urias as fill-ins, but they do not profile nearly as well as the other six Orioles.
Want to improve your lineup analysis with the Post-Contest Simulator? Check out Steve Buzzard’s tutorial to discover how to use simulations to refine your MLB DFS picks!
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Tonight it looks like RHP Zack Wheeler is someone to target in the sports wagering world for the under on 6.5 strikeouts. Much like last night with RHP Ronel Blanco, this is not an overly exciting bet, but it can help mitigate some of the downside on the DFS side of the equation as well.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on Hard Rock, where it is available at -115 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has -118 “true odds” for the veteran ace to strike out fewer than seven hitters tonight.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Fliff posting a -140 line for a NEGATIVE 7% ROI.
Tonight Wheeler projects for 6.1 strikeouts, which is below the seven needed for this under to fail. Wheeler has the 11th-most strikeouts in the league, and he is no stranger to crooked numbers. Over his last 10 starts, he has recorded eight, nine, six, seven, seven, seven, five, eight, four and four whiffs. The projected lineup for the Nationals has only two hitters striking out more than 22% against right-handed pitching this season. There are a lot of inexperienced players suiting up for Washington, but this is still a good bet for the under seven strikeouts.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Thursday, Aug. 15
There is a slim chance of rain near Philadelphia tonight, though the morning forecast has it not quite reaching the stadium. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time approaches.
