Tuesday brings a nine-game featured slate with a 7:10 p.m. ET lock time on FanDuel and DraftKings. Yahoo is locking at 6:35 p.m. ET and including all 15 games for the biggest tournaments. Today we’ll dive into the MLB DFS projections and leverage Stokastic’s tools to see how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers and craft optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Michael King and Nestor Cortes as preferred pitchers, while the New York Yankees and San Diego Padres provide stacking opportunities for today’s featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 13
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Michael King (SD vs. PIT)
Padres vs. Pirates – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$9,500 at DraftKings
$9,800 at FanDuel
$51 at Yahoo
On July 27, RHP Michael King took a comebacker off his left calf, which had him miss one turn in the rotation. In his last start, he was able to log 94 pitches, striking out seven Pirates in Pittsburgh during an otherwise benign start. He looks great in the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool, earning the “Ace of the Night” moniker.
King was part of the Juan Soto trade, and he has been outstanding for San Diego. This year he has been in the rotation for the full season, logging a career-high 129.1 innings, with a solid 3.34 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The Pirates have been a little below average over the last 30 days, despite a push to remain relevant in the Wild Card race.
The projected lineup for the Pirates has a 24.1% strikeout rate this season against right-handed pitchers, which plays right into the strength of King, who has a 28.1% strikeout rate as a starter.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Nestor Cortes (NYY at CHW)
Yankees at White Sox – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$8,400 at DraftKings
$8,600 at FanDuel
$36 at Yahoo
One thing is certain: LHP Nestor Cortes has been living up to his “Nasty Nestor” nickname. His last five starts have been nasty for those who supported him, with 6.94 strikeouts per nine innings and a 9.26 ERA, though his 6.39 FIP and 5.45 xFIP indicate some bad luck.
In the 10 starts prior to this trip to the doldrums, Cortes averaged 8.63 strikeouts per nine innings, a 2.83 ERA, 3.60 FIP and 3.76 xFIP. Last night the White Sox plated 12 runs, reaching double digits for only the second time this season. From a different vantage point, Chicago has scored seven or more runs only nine times in 120 (8%) tilts.
There is not much else to add other than the salary has dipped enough for Cortes that some of his recent performance risk is mitigated. The projected lineup for Chicago has five hitters who have struck out 26% or more against southpaws this season. Only three bats in the lineup have a .150 ISO or higher against lefties this season.
Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Paul Blackburn (NYM vs. OAK)
Mets vs. Athletics – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
$7,500 at DraftKings
$8,300 at FanDuel
$37 at Yahoo
Injuries and inconsistent performances have limited RHP Paul Blackburn to just 83 outings, despite making it to The Show back in 2017. The long-time Oakland pitcher is having his “best” year in his age-30 season.
Last year was an outlier for Blackburn, with a personal-best 9.03 strikeouts per nine innings, compared to his 6.92 rate. This season he has slid back to 7.14 per nine whilst also reverting to his homer-prone ways. Wait, why is this beginning to sound like a recommendation for the Oakland offense? Well, dear reader, this matchup does have “both-sideser” (h/t TMcB) potential.
For those searching for a cheap SP2 in a decent matchup on DraftKings, Blackburn fits the bill. One-offs are the A’s power hitters like Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday and catcher Shea Langeliers. Going against Blackburn with a full stack is somewhat risky because, if he starts to melt down, the Mets will just turn to their rested bullpen or even employ RHP Jose Butto in a multiple-inning relief role.
The final case in favor of Blackburn is that he does a decent job of avoiding full-on implosions, Oakland has the second most strikeouts in the league and the Athletics are running out RHP Ross Stripling, who is basically the bargain bin version of Blackburn, which has New York at a -155 home favorite.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees
Yankees at White Sox – 6.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Jonathan Cannon
DK Top Stack %: 16.4%
FD Top Stack %: 15.2%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool is ready to go right back to the Yankees after they disappointed last night. On tap tonight is a matchup against another rookie pitcher, with RHP Jonathan Cannon trying to mitigate the Bronx Bombers.
Somehow Cannon has been able to survive with a paltry 6.04 strikeouts per nine innings while being susceptible to power bats from both sides of the plate. If he can induce ground balls or weak contact with his heavy-sinking pitches, he will be adequate. If he is not able to, particularly against gauntlet of mashers put forth by the Yankees, he will be in big trouble. This season was the first for the 23-year-old to work above Double-A, logging 37.2 innings at Triple-A and another 76 in The Show.
New York’s active roster has a 127 wRC+ against right-handed hurlers this season, which is the best in the league. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Austin Wells, Giancarlo Stanton and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are the first wave of desirable bats. The second phalanx consists of veteran Alex Verdugo, young Ben Rice and the enigmatic Anthony Volpe. Verdugo should be promoted to the leadoff spot, with Volpe landing at the back of the order.
Want to improve your lineup analysis with the Post-Contest Simulator? Check out Steve Buzzard’s tutorial to discover how to use simulations to refine your MLB DFS picks!
Main Slate Secondary Target: San Diego Padres
Padres vs. Pirates – 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Luis Ortiz
DK Top Stack %: 5.4%
FD Top Stack %: 5.3%
There are a lot of pitchers in slumps who will be toeing the rubber tonight. RHP Kutter Crawford is facing the Rangers, who got him for four round-trippers in Texas two starts ago. The 28-year-old has allowed 13 home runs in his last four starts, spanning 18.2 innings. Yikes!
It will be RHP Jose Urena facing the Red Sox in Boston, who crushed him for seven runs two starts ago in Texas. In his last three starts, Urena has tallied just 12.1 innings, allowing 19 hits, three walks and 10 runs. The only saving grace is that he has ceded only two dingers, but he also has a scant four strikeouts in this stretch.
Setting all that aside, San Diego will be hosting RHP Luis Ortiz, with the 25-year-old having struggled in each of his last three outings, including his most recent start against the Padres in Pittsburgh. During this timeframe, he has 16.1 innings, 13 earned runs, seven walks and six home runs. His strikeouts have fallen to nine during this stretch.
Rookie Jackson Merrill has been outstanding this season, with great glove work and a wicked bat. In 304 plate appearances with the platoon advantage, he has a .376 wOBA and a .208 ISO. The numbers have been even more absurd over the last 30 days, with a .438 wOBA and a .379 ISO in 66 plate appearances.
Jurickson Profar, Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado and leadoff man Luis Arraez all profile well against Ortiz, giving plenty of ways to configure Padres stacks. For late-slate differentiation, look to David Peralta and skip Xander Bogaerts, who is picking up too much popularity for his projected production.
Unlock the full potential of Stokastic’s Lineup Generator and take your MLB DFS picks to the next level with our comprehensive Lineup Generator Guide!
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
For those asking why overs are rarely recommended in this section, this one is for you! We can consider RHP Kevin Gausman in Anaheim for his over on 4.5 strikeouts.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on DraftKings, where it is available at -185 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has-199 “true odds” for the venerable veteran to strike out at least five hitters tonight.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Pinnacle increasing the line to over 5.5 with a -161 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 20% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Tonight Gausman projects for 5.7 strikeouts, which bodes well for him to record the five strikeouts necessary for this wager to be successful. We can see there is a 67% probability of this happening, which is why there is heavy juice to the over. Gausman has seen his strikeout rate fall from 30.9% last year to 21.4% this season. Fortunately, the Angels projected lineup has four bats with a 26% strikeout rate or higher against right-handed pitching this season, with the overall motley crew striking out 24.1% of the time.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Tuesday, Aug. 13
Detroit is the only venue with weather concern, and it is fortunately minimum, with two of the best pitchers on the early-evening slate. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time approaches.
