Friday brings a MEGA 13-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Corbin Burnes and Zac Gallen as key arms, with the Yankees and Giants bats being the top stacks.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 26
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Corbin Burnes vs. Oakland Athletics — 3.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,800 | FanDuel $11,500 | Yahoo $56
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool will accept the gift that the Oakland Athletics are bringing to Baltimore as tribute to RHP Corbin Burnes. To be clear, this is an apex salary on FanDuel and Yahoo, but there are ways to take advantage of some mispriced infielders and reserve outfielders to make rostering Burnes a reality.
For the season, the A’s have an 84 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes ballparks and other factors, creating a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100), which indicates they are scoring 16% less efficiently than the average team. This drops a little further against right-handed pitching, making them the third-most pathetic offense in the league. The cherry on top of the sundae is a 28.4% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers, which plays right into the strength of Burnes.
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Late Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Zac Gallen at Seattle Mariners — 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,000 | FanDuel $11,000 | Yahoo $48
Seattle has a good team, and there is an above-average chance that the Mariners will make the playoffs. That is important to Seattle fans, who have seen postseason action once (2022) since the team lost in the 2001 AL Championship Series to the New York Yankees.
However, a big reason the team has high hopes is that the pitching is outstanding when everyone is healthy. The offense is mediocre at best with only 24 home runs, including three from Dominic Canzone, who is on the injured list having played in only 14 games, and just one longball has been recorded by Julio Rodriguez.
It is easy to forget, but Arizona lost in the World Series last year to the Texas Rangers and RHP Zac Gallen actually finished third in the National League Cy Young Award voting. The Diamondbacks ace continues to be one of the best pitching talents in the league, and while he was a bit of a late-bloomer, over his last 70 starts he has a 3.04 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 1.040 WHIP and just 0.8 home runs per nine innings. Strikeouts were the one thing keeping Gallen from being truly elite, but he has been well over one per inning during this stretch and could crack 10.0 this season.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees at RHP Colin Rea — 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the matchup against RHP Colin Rea and while it would be more fun if the Yankees has a lefty-laden lineup, they will be just fine. Rea has allowed a .223 ISO, with a paltry 18.7% strikeout rate in his last 305 opposite-handed matchups. That bodes well for Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo, albeit to a lesser extent. Anthony Rizzo has shown signs of life recently, and he should be in the heart of the order.
Aaron Judge has a .407 wOBA and a .309 ISO in his last 456 plate appearances against same-handed pitching, which makes him seem like a right-handed Babe Ruth. Giancarlo Stanton can still take the ball out of the park when he is healthy, so anything less than two home runs for the Bronx Bombers tonight against Rea should be considered a disappointment.
Late Slate Target: San Francisco Giants vs. RHP Quinn Priester — 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:15 p.m. ET
The Giants set up better against right-handed pitching, which is no bueno for RHP Quinn Priester. In his last 127 righty-lefty matchups, Priester has suffered a .473 wOBA and a .364 ISO. Essentially, he is tossing batting practice, so even the partially punch-less San Francisco offense should find success tonight.
Priester is not much better against righties, with a .346 wOBA and a .212 ISO in his last 128 same-handed matchups. That is a good sign for Jorge Soler, who tattoos right-handed pitching to the tune of an elite .207 ISO, while LaMonte Wade and cleanup hitter Michael Conforto bring the lumber from the left side. Mike Yastrzemski, Thairo Estrada, Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee are all candidates to complete four-man stacks on the featured slate, while they can be employed as their own secondary stack on the four-game late slate.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Targeting the under for RHP Chris Flexen’s 2.5 strikeouts prop does not feel great because it is such a low figure. This sounds familiar, as it is the same lead sentence as yesterday for RHP Daniel Hudson, who managed three strikeouts and broke my heart.
Yes, I could be a sucker for taking these miniscule unders, but the math supports them. Backers of this wager, such as myself, need Flexen to record no more than two strikeouts. OddsShopper shows this bet has +113 “true odds,” and the +125 line currently available at DraftKings provides a decent 5.6% expected return on investment (ROI).
There is a 47% probability of this wager coming through, so we really need to get this wager at plus money to make it worth the risk. Looking at the other sites in the +100 to +110 range further confirms that DraftKings has the most favorable odds.
Tonight will be the sixth start for Flexen, who was released in the middle of last year by Seattle and picked up by a pitching-starved Colorado squad. Even that team didn’t want to dance to a second song, so it was the dreadful White Sox who asked Flexen out on a date. In his five starts, spanning 19.2 innings, Flexen has just 11 strikeouts. This works out to 5.0 per nine innings and is well below his 6.3 career rate.
The projected lineup for Tampa has just three hitters striking out above league average against right-handed hurlers, and none of them are over 25%. Heck, four hitters in the lineup are at 18% or below, which has Flexen projected for just over 2.5 strikeouts but, most importantly, not close to three. Plus, there are weather concerns, so even a delay could limit Flexen to just three or four innings, which is another point on the under side of the ledger.
If the raindrops are a concern, then Aaron Judge stands out for his home run prop on BetRivers, which is listed at +270 but has true odds of +239, giving it a 9.2% expected ROI.
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Final Thoughts for Friday, April 26 — MLB DFS Picks
Chicago looks like a dicey proposition, which is a shame since RHP Zach Eflin would have been on the short list of aces tonight, if not for the elevated risk of, not only an in-game delay, but an actual postponement. Be sure to check in with your favorite DFS meteorological resources closer to first pitch to see if there are any urgent updates.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET, brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $500 first deposit match! Full details here.
