Wednesday keeps the week moving along with an eight-game featured slate locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Today we’ll dive into MLB DFS projections and leverage Stokastic’s tools to discover how to build MLB DFS stacks, find top pitchers, and creating optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Jack Flaherty and Ryan Pepiot are today’s core pitchers, and according to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees provide stacking opportunities for today’s featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 21
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Jack Flaherty (LAD vs. SEA)
Dodgers vs. Mariners – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
$10,500 at DraftKings
$10,900 at FanDuel
$56 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool loves RHP Jack Flaherty and his matchup against the K-happy Mariners. Of course, considering that the 28-year-old is projecting to be on close to half of all DraftKings rosters and one-quarter of FanDuel tournament entries, there is some leverage potential with Seattle stacks.
Last year, after being dealt from St. Louis to Baltimore at the trade deadline, Flaherty stumbled in epic fashion. He was knocked around for a 6.75 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP across 34.2 innings. This year he started out with Detroit, posting sublime stats prior to landing with the Dodgers. Los Angeles has been happy with his first trio of tilts as the frontline starter has compiled a 3.78 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and a whopping 24 strikeouts.
Yes, the four home runs are a little concerning, but even if Flaherty “only” produces quality starts (six innings with three or fewer earned runs), he should get the victory bonus more often than not with the L.A. offense behind him.
It should be no surprise that the Seattle offense produces better on the road than in pitching-friendly T-Mobile Park, though that is no guarantee of crooked numbers. Julio Rodriguez has been a shell of himself this season (.292 wOBA, .089 ISO in 326 plate appearances against RHPs), and J.P. Crawford is still on the injured reserve. Cal Raleigh and Luke Raley are anchoring the middle of the lineup, and they are the most productive bats against right-handed pitchers, so any attack of Flaherty should include that duo, along with Jorge Polanco or Randy Arozarena.
Considering the depth of the Los Angeles bullpen, the team is not likely to let Flaherty wilt on the vine. So the hope for those going against the MLB nomad is an early exit, mostly forced by Raleigh and Raley. Then with a large portion of the field no longer gaining fantasy points, that negative plus the R&R positive will complement a separate primary stack.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Ryan Pepiot (TB at OAK)
Rays at Athletics – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$8,300 at DraftKings
$8,200 at FanDuel
$49 at Yahoo
In his first start after missing a month with what appeared to be an infected spider bite, RHP Ryan Pepiot logged 5.1 strong innings against the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks, allowing two unearned runs and striking out five on 80 pitches.
The silver lining for the injury is that it allowed Pepiot to rest his arm since he already has recorded the second-highest workload of his career this season. He should be good for something in the 80- to 85-pitch range as a baseline, though that has been incorporate to his salary across the main DFS sites.
Pepiot has a 43.7% ground ball rate in his last 279 righty-lefty matchups, which should help mitigate the power of Lawrence Butler, Seth Brown and JJ Bleday. Oakland still has plenty of pop, but the A’s projected lineup has a 25.6% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers, which plays to Pepiot’s favor, as he has a 25.7% combined strikeout rate since the beginning of last year.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Kansas City Royals
Royals vs. Angels – 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Johnny Cueto
DK Top Stack %: 12.5%
FD Top Stack %: 12.8%
Just when it seems like the Kansas City stack recommendation would be skipped for an article, the Los Angeles Angels were forced to hand the ball to RHP Johnny Cueto, with Jose Soriano landing on the injured reserve.
Shout out to Cueto, who is back in The Show as a 38-year-old, having first started his career back before the advent of DFS in 2008 with the Cincinnati Reds. Last season, the Marlins ran Cueto out for 10 starts and three other appearances, and the venerable veteran was saddled with a 6.02 ERA in 52.1 innings of work. To his credit, he did have a 3.35 ERA in 2022, making 24 starts for the White Sox, but this is likely the last hurrah.
Power was an issue last year, with Cueto allowing 3.9 extra-base hits, including 2.1 home runs per nine innings. Deception and a funky delivery will only last for so long, and the Royals are a good offense. Once more, we should be targeting the core of Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Hunter Renfroe and Salvador Perez. MJ Melendez should make the lineup, and he profiles well against Cueto, as does Michael Massey. Any others getting their name on the lineup card are in play, though they can be skipped over outside of full stacks.
Unlock the full potential of Stokastic’s Lineup Generator and take your MLB DFS picks to the next level with our comprehensive Lineup Generator Guide!
Late Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees
Yankees vs. Guardians – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Joey Cantillo
DK Top Stack %: 10.1%
FD Top Stack %: 10.3%
Props to RHP Joey Cantillo for realizing his dream of becoming a big league pitcher. However, the results through 13 innings across three starts have been rough. Cantillo does project to have strikeout stuff, but he also has control issues and is susceptible to power.
Most season-long projection systems have the 24-year-old with around four walks per nine innings, though nearly a strikeout per frame. Cantillo was chosen in the 16th round of the 2017 MLB Draft, getting a $302,500 signing bonus as a high schooler. During the pandemic-shortened season, Cantillo was part of an eight-player trade between the Padres and Guardians. Between 2023 and this season, Cantillo has 128.1 Triple-A innings, so now is the time for him to get his chance at the top level.
Juan Soto hit his 35th home run of the year, while teammate Aaron Judge got his league-leading 45th round-tripper. It will be interesting to see if Austin Wells is in the lineup after he pinch-hit for Jose Trevino in the eighth inning of last night’s 12-inning affair. If the 25-year-old is with a right–handed starter on the mound, he is a strong option for stacks and as a one-off.
Sadly, the Jazz Chisholm experiment did not last long, but Gleyber Torres, Alex Verdugo and even Giancarlo Stanton can be used to top-off full stacks.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
It is never easy going against RHP Logan Gilbert, but tonight he is someone to target in the sports wagering world for the under on his 5.5 strikeouts.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on BetMGM, Fanatics and Hard Rock, where it is available at +100 odds, or “even” money.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has -107 “true odds” for the first-time All-Star to fall shy of six strikeouts.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced with PointsBet posting a -115 line, which equates to a negative-3% expected ROI.
Tonight Gilbert projects for just over 5.6 strikeouts, which is above the median line but, of course, still be below the half dozen required for this under to lose. While Gilbert does collect nearly a strikeout per inning, that is not his priority, and he works more towards efficiency and inducing weak contact. This season has seen him needing just 14.2 pitches per inning, which has allowed him to work deeper into games and rack up 20 quality starts. That is his focus since the Seattle offense has been soooooo dreadful, rather than showy, personal accomplishments. Of course, facing the Dodgers also brings in another level of risk, both with their scoring upside and ability to force Gilbert to burn through his pitch count prior to getting half a dozen whiffs.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Wednesday, Aug. 21
There are no scary weather situations for Wednesday, though before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time approaches.
